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No gods, no kings, only NOPE - or divining the future with options flows. [Part 3: Hedge Winding, Unwinding, and the NOPE]

Hello friends!
We're on the last post of this series ("A Gentle Introduction to NOPE"), where we get to use all the Big Boy Concepts (TM) we've discussed in the prior posts and put them all together. Some words before we begin:
  1. This post will be massively theoretical, in the sense that my own speculation and inferences will be largely peppered throughout the post. Are those speculations right? I think so, or I wouldn't be posting it, but they could also be incorrect.
  2. I will briefly touch on using the NOPE this slide, but I will make a secondary post with much more interesting data and trends I've observed. This is primarily for explaining what NOPE is and why it potentially works, and what it potentially measures.
My advice before reading this is to glance at my prior posts, and either read those fully or at least make sure you understand the tl;drs:
Depending on popular demand, I will also make a last-last post called FAQ, where I'll tabulate interesting questions you guys ask me in the comments!
So a brief recap before we begin.
Market Maker ("Mr. MM"): An individual or firm who makes money off the exchange fees and bid-ask spread for an asset, while usually trying to stay neutral about the direction the asset moves.
Delta-gamma hedging: The process Mr. MM uses to stay neutral when selling you shitty OTM options, by buying/selling shares (usually) of the underlying as the price moves.
Law of Surprise [Lily-ism]: Effectively, the expected profit of an options trade is zero for both the seller and the buyer.
Random Walk: A special case of a deeper probability probability called a martingale, which basically models stocks or similar phenomena randomly moving every step they take (for stocks, roughly every millisecond). This is one of the most popular views of how stock prices move, especially on short timescales.
Future Expected Payoff Function [Lily-ism]: This is some hidden function that every market participant has about an asset, which more or less models all the possible future probabilities/values of the assets to arrive at a "fair market price". This is a more generalized case of a pricing model like Black-Scholes, or DCF.
Counter-party: The opposite side of your trade (if you sell an option, they buy it; if you buy an option, they sell it).
Price decoherence ]Lily-ism]: A more generalized notion of IV Crush, price decoherence happens when instead of the FEPF changing gradually over time (price formation), the FEPF rapidly changes, due usually to new information being added to the system (e.g. Vermin Supreme winning the 2020 election).
One of the most popular gambling events for option traders to play is earnings announcements, and I do owe the concept of NOPE to hypothesizing specifically about the behavior of stock prices at earnings. Much like a black hole in quantum mechanics, most conventional theories about how price should work rapidly break down briefly before, during, and after ER, and generally experienced traders tend to shy away from playing earnings, given their similar unpredictability.
Before we start: what is NOPE? NOPE is a funny backronym from Net Options Pricing Effect, which in its most basic sense, measures the impact option delta has on the underlying price, as compared to share price. When I first started investigating NOPE, I called it OPE (options pricing effect), but NOPE sounds funnier.
The formula for it is dead simple, but I also have no idea how to do LaTeX on reddit, so this is the best I have:
Since I've already encountered this, put delta in this case is the absolute value (50 delta) to represent a put. If you represent put delta as a negative (the conventional way), do not subtract it; add it.
To keep this simple for the non-mathematically minded: the NOPE today is equal to the weighted sum (weighted by volume) of the delta of every call minus the delta of every put for all options chains extending from today to infinity. Finally, we then divide that number by the # of shares traded today in the market session (ignoring pre-market and post-market, since options cannot trade during those times).
Effectively, NOPE is a rough and dirty way to approximate the impact of delta-gamma hedging as a function of share volume, with us hand-waving the following factors:
  1. To keep calculations simple, we assume that all counter-parties are hedged. This is obviously not true, especially for idiots who believe theta ganging is safe, but holds largely true especially for highly liquid tickers, or tickers will designated market makers (e.g. any ticker in the NASDAQ, for instance).
  2. We assume that all hedging takes place via shares. For SPY and other products tracking the S&P, for instance, market makers can actually hedge via futures or other options. This has the benefit for large positions of not moving the underlying price, but still makes up a fairly small amount of hedges compared to shares.

Winding and Unwinding

I briefly touched on this in a past post, but two properties of NOPE seem to apply well to EER-like behavior (aka any binary catalyst event):
  1. NOPE measures sentiment - In general, the options market is seen as better informed than share traders (e.g. insiders trade via options, because of leverage + easier to mask positions). Therefore, a heavy call/put skew is usually seen as a bullish sign, while the reverse is also true.
  2. NOPE measures system stability
I'm not going to one-sentence explain #2, because why say in one sentence what I can write 1000 words on. In short, NOPE intends to measure sensitivity of the system (the ticker) to disruption. This makes sense, when you view it in the context of delta-gamma hedging. When we assume all counter-parties are hedged, this means an absolutely massive amount of shares get sold/purchased when the underlying price moves. This is because of the following:
a) Assume I, Mr. MM sell 1000 call options for NKLA 25C 10/23 and 300 put options for NKLA 15p 10/23. I'm just going to make up deltas because it's too much effort to calculate them - 30 delta call, 20 delta put.
This implies Mr. MM needs the following to delta hedge: (1000 call options * 30 shares to buy for each) [to balance out writing calls) - (300 put options * 20 shares to sell for each) = 24,000 net shares Mr. MM needs to acquire to balance out his deltas/be fully neutral.
b) This works well when NKLA is at $20. But what about when it hits $19 (because it only can go down, just like their trucks). Thanks to gamma, now we have to recompute the deltas, because they've changed for both the calls (they went down) and for the puts (they went up).
Let's say to keep it simple that now my calls are 20 delta, and my puts are 30 delta. From the 24,000 net shares, Mr. MM has to now have:
(1000 call options * 20 shares to have for each) - (300 put options * 30 shares to sell for each) = 11,000 shares.
Therefore, with a $1 shift in price, now to hedge and be indifferent to direction, Mr. MM has to go from 24,000 shares to 11,000 shares, meaning he has to sell 13,000 shares ASAP, or take on increased risk. Now, you might be saying, "13,000 shares seems small. How would this disrupt the system?"
(This process, by the way, is called hedge unwinding)
It won't, in this example. But across thousands of MMs and millions of contracts, this can - especially in highly optioned tickers - make up a substantial fraction of the net flow of shares per day. And as we know from our desk example, the buying or selling of shares directly changes the price of the stock itself.
This, by the way, is why the NOPE formula takes the shape it does. Some astute readers might notice it looks similar to GEX, which is not a coincidence. GEX however replaces daily volume with open interest, and measures gamma over delta, which I did not find good statistical evidence to support, especially for earnings.
So, with our example above, why does NOPE measure system stability? We can assume for argument's sake that if someone buys a share of NKLA, they're fine with moderate price swings (+- $20 since it's NKLA, obviously), and in it for the long/medium haul. And in most cases this is fine - we can own stock and not worry about minor swings in price. But market makers can't* (they can, but it exposes them to risk), because of how delta works. In fact, for most institutional market makers, they have clearly defined delta limits by end of day, and even small price changes require them to rebalance their hedges.
This over the whole market adds up to a lot shares moving, just to balance out your stupid Robinhood YOLOs. While there are some tricks (dark pools, block trades) to not impact the price of the underlying, the reality is that the more options contracts there are on a ticker, the more outsized influence it will have on the ticker's price. This can technically be exactly balanced, if option put delta is equal to option call delta, but never actually ends up being the case. And unlike shares traded, the shares representing the options are more unstable, meaning they will be sold/bought in response to small price shifts. And will end up magnifying those price shifts, accordingly.

NOPE and Earnings

So we have a new shiny indicator, NOPE. What does it actually mean and do?
There's much literature going back to the 1980s that options markets do have some level of predictiveness towards earnings, which makes sense intuitively. Unlike shares markets, where you can continue to hold your share even if it dips 5%, in options you get access to expanded opportunity to make riches... and losses. An options trader betting on earnings is making a risky and therefore informed bet that he or she knows the outcome, versus a share trader who might be comfortable bagholding in the worst case scenario.
As I've mentioned largely in comments on my prior posts, earnings is a special case because, unlike popular misconceptions, stocks do not go up and down solely due to analyst expectations being meet, beat, or missed. In fact, stock prices move according to the consensus market expectation, which is a function of all the participants' FEPF on that ticker. This is why the price moves so dramatically - even if a stock beats, it might not beat enough to justify the high price tag (FSLY); even if a stock misses, it might have spectacular guidance or maybe the market just was assuming it would go bankrupt instead.
To look at the impact of NOPE and why it may play a role in post-earnings-announcement immediate price moves, let's review the following cases:
  1. Stock Meets/Exceeds Market Expectations (aka price goes up) - In the general case, we would anticipate post-ER market participants value the stock at a higher price, pushing it up rapidly. If there's a high absolute value of NOPE on said ticker, this should end up magnifying the positive move since:
a) If NOPE is high negative - This means a ton of put buying, which means a lot of those puts are now worthless (due to price decoherence). This means that to stay delta neutral, market makers need to close out their sold/shorted shares, buying them, and pushing the stock price up.
b) If NOPE is high positive - This means a ton of call buying, which means a lot of puts are now worthless (see a) but also a lot of calls are now worth more. This means that to stay delta neutral, market makers need to close out their sold/shorted shares AND also buy more shares to cover their calls, pushing the stock price up.
2) Stock Meets/Misses Market Expectations (aka price goes down) - Inversely to what I mentioned above, this should push to the stock price down, fairly immediately. If there's a high absolute value of NOPE on said ticker, this should end up magnifying the negative move since:
a) If NOPE is high negative - This means a ton of put buying, which means a lot of those puts are now worth more, and a lot of calls are now worth less/worth less (due to price decoherence). This means that to stay delta neutral, market makers need to sell/short more shares, pushing the stock price down.
b) If NOPE is high positive - This means a ton of call buying, which means a lot of calls are now worthless (see a) but also a lot of puts are now worth more. This means that to stay delta neutral, market makers need to sell even more shares to keep their calls and puts neutral, pushing the stock price down.
Based on the above two cases, it should be a bit more clear why NOPE is a measure of sensitivity to system perturbation. While we previously discussed it in the context of magnifying directional move, the truth is it also provides a directional bias to our "random" walk. This is because given a price move in the direction predicted by NOPE, we expect it to be magnified, especially in situations of price decoherence. If a stock price goes up right after an ER report drops, even based on one participant deciding to value the stock higher, this provides a runaway reaction which boosts the stock price (due to hedging factors as well as other participants' behavior) and inures it to drops.


I'm going to gloss over this section because this is more statistical methods than anything interesting. In general, if you have enough data, I recommend using NOPE_MAD over NOPE. While NOPE in theory represents a "real" quantity (net option delta over net share delta), NOPE_MAD (the median absolute deviation of NOPE) does not. NOPE_MAD simply answecompare the following:
  1. How exceptional is today's NOPE versus historic baseline (30 days prior)?
  2. How do I compare two tickers' NOPEs effectively (since some tickers, like TSLA, have a baseline positive NOPE, because Elon memes)? In the initial stages, we used just a straight numerical threshold (let's say NOPE >= 20), but that quickly broke down. NOPE_MAD aims to detect anomalies, because anomalies in general give you tendies.
I might add the formula later in Mathenese, but simply put, to find NOPE_MAD you do the following:
  1. Calculate today's NOPE score (this can be done end of day or intraday, with the true value being EOD of course)
  2. Calculate the end of day NOPE scores on the ticker for the previous 30 trading days
  3. Compute the median of the previous 30 trading days' NOPEs
  4. From the median, find the 30 days' median absolute deviation (
  5. Find today's deviation as compared to the MAD calculated by: [(today's NOPE) - (median NOPE of last 30 days)] / (median absolute deviation of last 30 days)
This is usually reported as sigma (σ), and has a few interesting properties:
  1. The mean of NOPE_MAD for any ticker is almost exactly 0.
  2. [Lily's Speculation's Speculation] NOPE_MAD acts like a spring, and has a tendency to reverse direction as a function of its magnitude. No proof on this yet, but exploring it!

Using the NOPE to predict ER

So the last section was a lot of words and theory, and a lot of what I'm mentioning here is empirically derived (aka I've tested it out, versus just blabbered).
In general, the following holds true:
  1. 3 sigma NOPE_MAD tends to be "the threshold": For very low NOPE_MAD magnitudes (+- 1 sigma), it's effectively just noise, and directionality prediction is low, if not non-existent. It's not exactly like 3 sigma is a play and 2.9 sigma is not a play; NOPE_MAD accuracy increases as NOPE_MAD magnitude (either positive or negative) increases.
  2. NOPE_MAD is only useful on highly optioned tickers: In general, I introduce another parameter for sifting through "candidate" ERs to play: option volume * 100/share volume. When this ends up over let's say 0.4, NOPE_MAD provides a fairly good window into predicting earnings behavior.
  3. NOPE_MAD only predicts during the after-market/pre-market session: I also have no idea if this is true, but my hunch is that next day behavior is mostly random and driven by market movement versus earnings behavior. NOPE_MAD for now only predicts direction of price movements right between the release of the ER report (AH or PM) and the ending of that market session. This is why in general I recommend playing shares, not options for ER (since you can sell during the AH/PM).
  4. NOPE_MAD only predicts direction of price movement: This isn't exactly true, but it's all I feel comfortable stating given the data I have. On observation of ~2700 data points of ER-ticker events since Mar 2019 (SPY 500), I only so far feel comfortable predicting whether stock price goes up (>0 percent difference) or down (<0 price difference). This is +1 for why I usually play with shares.
Some statistics:
#0) As a baseline/null hypothesis, after ER on the SPY500 since Mar 2019, 50-51% price movements in the AH/PM are positive (>0) and ~46-47% are negative (<0).
#1) For NOPE_MAD >= +3 sigma, roughly 68% of price movements are positive after earnings.
#2) For NOPE_MAD <= -3 sigma, roughly 29% of price movements are positive after earnings.
#3) When using a logistic model of only data including NOPE_MAD >= +3 sigma or NOPE_MAD <= -3 sigma, and option/share vol >= 0.4 (around 25% of all ERs observed), I was able to achieve 78% predictive accuracy on direction.

Caveats/Read This

Like all models, NOPE is wrong, but perhaps useful. It's also fairly new (I started working on it around early August 2020), and in fact, my initial hypothesis was exactly incorrect (I thought the opposite would happen, actually). Similarly, as commenters have pointed out, the timeline of data I'm using is fairly compressed (since Mar 2019), and trends and models do change. In fact, I've noticed significantly lower accuracy since the coronavirus recession (when I measured it in early September), but I attribute this mostly to a smaller date range, more market volatility, and honestly, dumber option traders (~65% accuracy versus nearly 80%).
My advice so far if you do play ER with the NOPE method is to use it as following:
  1. Buy/short shares approximately right when the market closes before ER. Ideally even buying it right before the earnings report drops in the AH session is not a bad idea if you can.
  2. Sell/buy to close said shares at the first sign of major weakness (e.g. if the NOPE predicted outcome is incorrect).
  3. Sell/buy to close shares even if it is correct ideally before conference call, or by the end of the after-market/pre-market session.
  4. Only play tickers with high NOPE as well as high option/share vol.
In my next post, which may be in a few days, I'll talk about potential use cases for SPY and intraday trends, but I wanted to make sure this wasn't like 7000 words by itself.
- Lily
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AMZN Trade Retrospective: Collecting a $.37 Credit for the Potential to Make Another $50

AMZN Trade Retrospective: Collecting a $.37 Credit for the Potential to Make Another $50
There are different ways to trade in a choppy environment. Here’s a deep dive on how I attempted to use weekly options to trade a potential bounce in AMZN, and collected $.37 initially, for the possibility of making $50 more, even though the trade ended up being only an $.81 winner.

The Entry

Last Thursday, 9/24, when $AMZN was trading at about $3000 a share, I was looking for a cheap way to play a bounce in the stock. During that time, my bias in the markets had begun to shift to a more bullish stance after seeing how the market had difficulty grinding lower. With that in mind, I wanted to play a potential bounce in tech. But I knew I didn’t want to pay a debit at all to play for a bounce that might not even happen, given how uncertain and choppy the markets had been, but I still wanted to set myself up to capture some large gains if AMZN did indeed bounce. Therefore, the strategy that made the most sense to me, was a Call broken wing butterfly.
Given that I’m a very short-term options trader who loves trading weeklies, I was trying to look for a cheap butterfly for the upcoming week that I could put on for a net credit. After exploring the options chain, I came across the +1/-2/+1 3300/3350/3450 call broken wing butterfly for the Oct 2 series. This fly, at the time (on Sept 24), was trading for a total of $.37 credit. Meaning, by putting on that butterfly, I would get paid $.37, and the following scenarios could happen:
  1. If AMZN decided to tank or hang out sideways and never get up close enough to the butterfly to expand the spread in my favor, then I’d walk away pocketing the $.37 credit
  2. If AMZN slowly crept up to reach exactly 3350 by expiration, I’d not only get to keep the credit, but also be able to sell the butterfly back out for $50. Of course, it doesn’t need to reach exactly 3350 by expiration. If AMZN slowly worked its way up to near 3300, then the butterfly would expand very nicely as well.
  3. If AMZN blew past 3400 by expiration, I’d see a loss, up to a maximum of $50 / spread (if $AMZN moves past 3450). That’s because the 3300/3350 long call vertical of the fly provides 50 points of coverage before I essentially start losing money from the 3350/3450 short vertical, up until that 3450 kicks in to cap off further upside losses.
So that is a rough outline of the potential scenarios that would happen with this trade.
Given the choppy market conditions, I was ok with risking $50/spread (point #3), in order to not lose money if I’m wrong on direction (point #1), while at the same time, keeping myself open to the possibility of the butterfly expanding in my favor (point #2) for some potentially very large gains.
But satisfying point #3 is tricky. I needed more data points suggesting that $AMZN wouldn’t surge higher early on in the trade. Because if $AMZN did surge higher early on in the trade, then while the 3300 long call would rise in value, those two 3350 short calls would also rise in value, and because there’d still be some time value left, they could be very juiced up and eat away at the profits of that 3300 long call, so much so that the 3450 long call won’t even be able to offset those losses, especially given how far out of the money that 3450 call is.

AMZN on 9/24, daily timeframe
Looking at the chart above on 9/24, we can see that AMZN was trading at around $3000/share. In order to reach $3300 (where the first long call of the broken wing butterfly is), the stock would need to
  1. Breach the 38% fib retracement (~AMZN=3131) of the move from the 9/2 high to the 9/21 low,
  2. Breach the 20MA and 50MA
  3. Breach the 50% fib retracement (~AMZN=3211)
  4. Breach the 61.8% fib retracement (~AMZN=3292)
before finally reaching the 3300 long call. All of these levels, I felt, should provide some resistance for AMZN to have to chew thru over the following week, before it even gets to the long call. And by that time, if AMZN did reach 3300, then the 3300 long call would still have a lot of extrinsic value left (somewhere around $20 on the last day), while the 3350 short calls would be very cheap (each around $5), so the entire spread could be roughly worth $10. Which would be great, because that means I’d be getting paid $.37 to make another $10.
So with all of the above considered, I chose to take on that upside risk, for a chance to make potentially $50 (realistically I try to aim for just half of the max profit: $25, and start harvesting profits and peeling off the flies at around $5-$10), and that day on 9/24, entered the Oct2 3300/3350/3450 call broken wing butterfly for a $.37 credit.
After entry, on Friday 9/25 and Monday 9/28, AMZN made steady progress upwards, from 3000 to 3175, breaching the 31.8% retracement and tagging the 20MA and 50MA from below.

AMZN on 9/28, daily timeframe
but this move wasn’t large and fast enough to expand the value of the 3350 short calls. In fact, theta did a great job draining those short calls, while the 3300 long call did a good job retaining its premium, so the butterfly had already expanded a bit in my favor, and I was sitting at about a small $1.00 profit.

The Adjustment

However, on Tuesday and Wednesday, AMZN began to stall out. By the end of Wednesday 9/30, when it looked like AMZN was putting in a topping tail, I decided that AMZN might not be able to make it near 3300 by expiration Friday, so I wanted to take in a bit more credit while I still could, before theta drained more of that 3300 long call. At the time, the spread was trading for almost $2.
That’s when I made a slight adjustment to the spread and sold the 3300/3310 call vertical.

AMZN on 9/30, daily timeframe
This essentially rolled the 3300 long call up to 3310, and I was able to collect a small $.44 credit for it. However, this adjustment did open me up to an additional $10 of risk to the upside, because now, the long call vertical portion of the butterfly is only $40 wide (instead of $50). Still, with only 2 days left for AMZN to go higher, I felt comfortable taking on a bit more upside risk knowing that theta is going to be working hard to drain those 3350 short calls if AMZN did decide to surge higher. And at that moment, I actually wanted AMZN to move more towards my fly. My deltas were still positive, and the risk graph showed that a move towards the short strikes of the fly would expand it by another $4-5 by Thursday.
So after this adjustment, the trade stood at a $.81 credit, and the profit potential on the fly was now $40 instead of $50. Which is still pretty good.

The Tease

On Thursday, AMZN showed some strength and closed above the 50% fib (3211), which meant that if on Friday, AMZN worked its way up to around 3300, the fly could potentially be worth $5-10. Things were looking good (on any continued bullishness, the next target for AMZN was the 61.8% fib retracement at ~3300). So I left the trade alone without making any more adjustments.

AMZN on 10/1, daily timeframe

The Flop

Unfortunately, on Thursday night, news broke out that Trump was diagnosed with Coronavirus, and the market fell lower. By the open, AMZN was already trading at around 3150, roughly 150 points below the fly. The spread had instantly lost all of its value, so I basically let it expire worthless and walked away pocketing the $.81 credit.
While the trade did not work out as well as I had liked, the important thing to note is that I was able to get paid even when the trade didn’t go in my favor. With options, there are ways to trade an underlying to a certain target without ponying up a debit, albeit at the cost of introducing tail risk, while offering the possibility of very large upside. This may be a style of trading that one can consider employing when the outlook of the markets is uncertain, as long as the trader is willing to make the necessary adjustments to control risk.
Which leads me to the following section:


What if AMZN decided to surge very early on during the trade? What if AMZN had surged to 3300 with 4-5 DTE, hence juicing up the short calls and causing the butterfly to take on large negative deltas?
Even though the position would be very theta positive, I would pony up the debit to cap off the upside risk by buying the 3400/3450 call vertical, hence turning the 3300/3350/3450 broken wing butterfly into the 3300/3350/3400 balanced butterfly. From there on out until expiration, I would look for ways to reduce the debit incurred from that adjustment.

But what if AMZN tanked afterwards? You could end up getting whipsawed.
I’d rather be safe than sorry and make the necessary adjustments to avoid getting run over, because I don’t like playing the hope card. I could always undo the adjustment and look for ways to collect back more credit (at the cost of introducing risk elsewhere), depending on my new directional bias on AMZN at the time.

Your maximum loss is so large, $5000. I’d never make that bet, I would never risk $5000 to make $5000.
This style of trading is not for everyone. There are different ways to perceive risk. I don't really think of risk as binary as “max gain vs max loss”. If the trade goes against me, I’m not going to open myself up to the possibility of eating the maximum loss. I’m going to manage that risk and make sure that I don’t lose any money at all on the trade. Basically, I’m not going to just put on the trade, walk away to the prayer room, and come back at expiration and hope that AMZN expired at 3350.

Why not just join thetagang and slap on iron condors / credit spreads in this environment? You could’ve collected more credit by selling a 50 point wide put vertical with your bounce thesis.
Different traders have different styles. I personally don’t like pure premium selling strategies. I’d rather have long options in front of the shorts to open myself up for some large upside and convexity in the P/L curve, rather than limit myself to the concavity of pure premium selling strategies. Having long options in front of the shorts also helps me sleep better at night.

It’s hard to read this. Is there a more visual explanation?
Here’s a video on it:

TL;DR - I used weekly options to trade a potential bounce in AMZN, and got paid $.37 initially to do so, for the possibility of making $50 more. While the trade did not pan out, I walked away pocketing $.81 for being wrong.
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The speech that would actually redeem Bernie Sanders and start to heal the damage he has done.

Forgiveness should always be offered to someone who demonstrates that they understand how their actions caused harm, that they are sorry for the harm, and that they are committed to repairing the damage they did as well as not do it again. Bernie has not done any of this. This is the speech he would give if he were truly taking the first step on the road to redemption.

Looking back at the last 5 years I realize that I have made some big mistakes and caused a lot of harm to a lot of people. I am here today to ask your forgiveness. Since I was a young man I believed in a vision of America that I sincerely believed would be widely adopted if I could only get the word out. I was arrogant. I assumed that the only explanations for not supporting my vision was ignorance or corruption. There was no room in my worldview for good faith disagreement or working with others. It was my way or the highway. Which is not the American way.
The first people I want to apologize to are my donors. I told you that money wins elections and that if you donated to me I would win. I asked many of you to give not simply from your excess but from your need - promising you that pain endured now to support me would pay off later. And you gave me over half a billion dollars across 2 primaries allowing me to outspend everyone except Bloomberg by tens of millions of dollars. Yes, I outspent Hillary. I was the big money candidate in 2016, not her. I spent twice as much as Joe in 2020. And they both won by popular vote landslides. Money doesn't buy elections. It just gets your message out there. If voters don't like your message then money can't help you.
I refused to accept what this meant in 2016 choosing instead to focus on how much better I had done than I ever had before. I saw myself on an upward trajectory and focused on spreading my message instead of on defeating Donald Trump. In fact, I viewed Donald Trump's election as beneficial to my long term goals. If Hillary won and made things better people would cease feeling the urgency I did. But if Trump won things would get worse and I would be in a position to harness that pain in 2020. I had no idea how much worse things would get. But that is no excuse. The very act of supporting harm to others to advance oneself is disqualifying and self destructive. Martin Luther King Jr. once said, "You can't fight hate with hate, only love can do that". He was right. I was wrong.
In the beginning of 2020 I had an option to atone and put progress ahead of my own ego but I didn't take it. I could have stayed out of the race and supported Elizabeth Warren. She is a better candidate than me in many ways. She was a struggling single mother where I was a deadbeat dad - it's true I walked out on my son Levi when he was an infant - something you'd all know if the DNC had been rigging things against me. They weren't. There are many more such skeletons in my political closet that not one single Democrat has attacked me with. But you can bet the GOP would not hold back if I'd been the nominee. Warren is a much better face for the movement than I am. She has won significant victories in passing banking regulations and consumer protections - actually doing things I only talked about. I've been in Washington for 30 years while she has only held office for 7 yet her accomplishments dwarf mine. She is a decade younger and in much better health. She has higher approval ratings and support among constituencies I can't get traction in. Where I have slogans she has plans. But I was drunk on adulation and validation. I wanted the roaring crowds chanting my name like I had in 2016. I wanted the money, the interviews, the attention. So I convinced myself that her sex meant she couldn't win and that I had an obligation to run - to do what I deeply wanted to do anyway. This is nonsense. Hillary Clinton proved in 2016 that a woman can win when she got 3 million more votes than Donald Trump. With my help Warren could have won. With my help Clinton could have won. And I will spend the rest of my life trying to atone for undercutting both of them. Especially Warren who was always my friend and ally but I treated her like an enemy and encouraged my fans to attack her horribly when she got in my way. I'm so very sorry Elizabeth.
The 2020 primary was my wake up call. I expected to do better than I did in 2016 - I expected to win. My name was now nationally known, I had spent 4 years in the public eye ensuring that my message understood by all. I had finally achieved my lifelong dream of being heard. It is why I published a newsletter as a young man, why I had my own weekly television show as Burlington's mayor, why I was blogging regularly when most Senators didn't know what the internet was. It was why I was deeply jealous of Clinton for not only getting higher speaking fees than I did but having a much wider audience than me. It is why in 2016 I spent 29 million dollars on social media manipulation. If you add up every House, Senate, and presidential candidate in American history combined it is less than what I spent drowning out any other voice on reddit, twitter, and facebook. But now that I had been heard I was certain there would be a moment of class consciousness that would elect me in a landslide.
But there wasn't.
In fact not only did I lose, I lost even worse than last time. In 2016 Hillary Clinton got 4 million more votes than I did. In 2020 Joe Biden got 9 million more votes than I did. But - most shocking to me - I got 4 million fewer votes than I did last time. People who supported me in 2016 left me in 2020. How could they have seen the light and then walked away from it? I really struggled with this and understanding it was not easy. Some people noticed that I stopped showing up for work in the Senate for several months while I came to grips with losing a race I had assumed was in the bag. Important votes happened and I wasn't there. My absence made the difference in some of them. Warren, Klobuchar, Harris - they didn't let having their dreams be crushed stop them from doing their job. I did. Yet another way in which I failed to be the person I thought I was. The person I told you I was. They were fighters, showing up every day for you. I wasn't.
Most of the reason my vote total shrank was that in 2016 over a fifth of my voters listed Biden as their first choice. He wasn't running in 2016. He was running in 2020. I was so caught up in my own righteousness that I assumed every vote cast for me was truly for me. They weren't. As soon as a candidate more to their liking showed up they left. Another reason my vote shrank was due to my own behavior. I hired to run my campaign people who saw the world as I did. A simple binary choice between good and evil where I was good and everyone else was evil. Where the world was broken and only I could fix it. Nobody else was good enough. Everyone else was corrupt. They worshipped me and I reveled in it. I treated every other successful candidate as enemies to be destroyed and my staff imitated me creating a uniquely toxic campaign culture that repelled voters. My zero tolerance policy for questioning or criticism blinded us all to impending defeat. Anyone who disagreed, after all, was "low information" or "corrupt" and didn't need to be listened to. But we were the real low information people.
In examining my failures and coming to accept my faults I now understand and accept why so many voters rejected me. I failed the Commander and Chief test not once but many times in these last 5 years. I am never running for President again and wouldn't accept the nomination if it was somehow offered to me. So please, stop wishing for something bad to happen to Biden on my behalf. He is a good man and a great leader who will be a fine president. He may not be going to my destination but he is going in a good direction that will heal this country. Vote for him. And vote in every election, not just Presidential years.
- Imaginary Bernie Sanders
submitted by Mrs_Frisby to Enough_Sanders_Spam [link] [comments]

Google to Ban Binary Options Ads

Google is ready to ban binary option and cryptocurrency ads

Well, it’s about time, Google is next in line to pose a stiff challenge to the largely fraudulent online trading industry. The world’s largest search engine has just announced that it plans to ban all cryptocurrencies and binary options advertisements, and it is cracking down on ads for various other speculative financial products.

Say goodbye to binary options & cryptocurrency ads

The new rules, which are scheduled to take effect in June, will flat out ban adverts for binary options, cryptocurrencies and all related content (including initial coin offerings, cryptocurrency exchanges, cryptocurrency wallets, and cryptocurrency trading advice. Cryptocurrencies have surged in popularity over the last year thanks to a boom in the price of bitcoin towards the end of fiscal 2017. This coincided with a surge in initial coin offerings (ICOs), where numerous startups have issued their own cryptocurrency in exchange for money to construct their businesses.

Taking Facebook’s lead

Google’s hard-line approach follows a similar ban that Facebook enacted earlier in the year in banning cryptocurrency related advertising on its platform. Scott Spencer, Google’s Director of Sustainable Ads said in a recent blog post that the clampdown is part of Google’s efforts to shield consumers from online trading scams.
However, much of the online trading world is unregulated, which in turn has attracted scammers looking to make quick money. Last year myriads of “pump and dump” filled the market, while this year bogus ICO projects have become routine.

Forex & CFD Crackdown

Google is additionally coming down on ads for contracts for difference (CFD), spread betting, and foreign exchange (forex) instruments on its platform.
These products carry a high level of risk and the entire industry is under increasing regulatory scrutiny across Europe over the past year thanks to severe investment fraud sweeping through the continent. The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) issued a warning in November that cryptocurrency CFDs are incredibly high-risk, speculative products that risk the investor suffering significant losses. Research conducted by the FCA showed 82% of people who use the products lose money, implying CFDs are more similar to gambling than investing.

Affiliate marketing for online trading takes a hit

Google additionally announced it is banning ads from affiliates and aggregators who traffic leads to online trading brokers. These websites earn a commission for referring new clients to these products that are lightly regulated.
The search giant will require CFD, spread bet, and forex websites to register with it if they want to advertise on its platform and all brokers must be licensed in the country they are looking to advertise in.

Pressure getting to Google

Google’s financial marketing crackdown arises among continued pressure on the search giant, which additionally owns YouTube, regarding the way it runs its advertising procedure. Google has been heavily criticized by the media and politicians for permitting everything from radicalization to binary options trading on its advertising platform due to careless controlling of content and advertising.
Spencer did state in his blog post that Google removed 3.2 billion “bad” ads last year and announced, “Improving the ads experience across the web, whether that’s removing harmful ads or intrusive ads, will continue to be a top priority for us.” We shall see. However, there is a pretty good chance that these fraudulent brokers will just simply change the name of their product in order to get around Google’s ban and deceive an unsuspecting user.

What you can do

If you are the victim of an HBC Broker scam be sure to send your complaint to [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]), and we will do our very best to get into contact with you as soon as we can to initiate your funds recovery process.

submitted by taifkhan420 to u/taifkhan420 [link] [comments]

Three ways to play earnings without getting IV crushed

Sup nerds. Tomorrow is my birthday and I’m probably waking up to a nice fat 4 digit red number because I dared bet against a company so badass as to have a one letter ticker. So my birthday gift to all of you is the gift of knowing how to lose money like I do.
If you’ve tried to play earnings with options though you’ve probably experienced IV crush. The stock moves in your favor but you lose money anyway. So I thought I’d give a quick rundown of what IV crush is and some simple strategies to avoid it.
Skip ahead to number 2 if you already know what IV crush is.
(Yes there have been some posts on IV crush over the past few months but as far as I can tell they’re all huge walls of text, don’t give enough clear advice, and aren’t specifically about earnings, so here you go.)

1 . What is IV crush in relation to earnings?

It’s easiest to think of it in terms of “expected move.” Implied volatility (IV) is how much of an "expected move" is implied in the current options price. Add up the price of the ATM call and ATM put, and this is how much of a move the market has priced in.
Example: $W today at close:
$134 5/8 call = 11.80
$134 5/8 put = 11.00
Expected move between now and expiration: 22.80
Naturally, after the earnings report is released there will be a much smaller expectation of movement over the remainder of the week, so the expected move will go down no matter which way the stock goes. This is another way of saying IV is going down, i.e. IV crush.

2. Strategies to play earnings without getting IV crushed:

a) Buy Deep ITM calls/puts

Deep ITM options get the majority of their price from their intrinsic value (what you’d make if you exercised the option today) as opposed to their extrinsic value (IV and theta) so there’s a lot less IV for them to lose, assuming you get a good fill. You want to pay as close to intrinsic value as possible.
Strike - Stock price = intrinsic value
Example: $160 put - $134 stock price = $26 intrinsic value
So if you’re buying the $160 put on a stock trading for $134, pay as close to $26 as possible. You’re gonna have to pay a little over but don’t just hit the ask, as the bid/ask can be wide on these.

b) Sell naked options or spreads

Get on the right side of IV crush. Personally I like to sell naked options, but spreads are good if you are a scared little baby or if your fake broker doesn’t let you sell naked options.
i) ATM vs OTM
I like ATM the best because you collect the most premium, and if the stock trades flat you still win because IV crush works in your favor.
OTM does offer extra protection from the stock moving against you. Keep in mind as you move OTM you are moving toward smaller wins and bigger losses, but also a higher win ratio. Pennies in front of the steamroller.
ii) Spread positioning
Position the outer leg (the leg you’re buying) as far OTM as possible to increase your profitability if the stock trades flat and improve your odds of winning.
Or make it a narrower spread to make it closer to a binary event. If the stock is trading at $134.50 and you sell the $134/$135 put spread for $0.50 (half the width of the strikes), that’s basically a double or nothing coin flip. If you have a high degree of confidence in which way the stock is going, that's pretty good leverage.

c) Use options to be synthetically short/long shares

If you want to gamble on direction in a way that is more leveraged than shares but completely free of Greek headaches, this is for you.
To go long: Buy the ATM Call, sell the ATM put
To go short: Sell the ATM call, buy the ATM put
If you buy an ATM call and sell the ATM put of the same strike, your position is exactly the same as being long 100 shares. The greeks from the long and short options cancel each other out.
The same is true if you buy the ATM put and sell the ATM call. Your position is mathematically the same as being short 100 shares.
The beauty, though, is that it uses about half as much buying power as buying or selling shares on margin. Just for example, based on numbers at market close today, buying an ATM call and selling an ATM put on $W uses $3716 in buying power, as opposed to roughly $6700 to buy 100 shares on margin.
ii) If your fake broker won’t let you sell naked options
You can just buy a wide leg. So if you’re going long just buy the ATM call, Sell the ATM put, and buy a deep OTM put. If you're going short, buy the ATM put, sell the ATM call, and buy a deep OTM call.

That's it I think. Hopefully someone found this helpful and it wasn’t just a bunch of obvious shit you all already know. I’m gonna get started on drinking some wine and eating some edibles and contemplating how fucking old I am. Feel free to ask any questions or add any thoughts.
submitted by themadpooper to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Binary Options: A Sickening Scam

The Art of a Binary Options Scam

Binary options, fraudulent “trading products” that are designed to part prospective investors from their money are very different from real options. In essence, they are simply a bet that the price of a particular asset will rise in a given time frame. If you win the gamble, the company is supposed to pay a fixed payout, within the 70%-95% range. If you lose, however, you not only lose the “payout” but the initial investment as well.
If this was merely the case this would fall under the category of gambling, something that millions upon millions of individuals do recreationally. However, that is primarily not the case. With almost all binary options brokers you are “trading” against the broker and not the market. The broker wants you to lose, or else the company would not make a profit. Even if the broker pays out your winnings he can easily govern your profit with payout conditions. This means that even if you have a winning formula, the company will just decrease the payout, ensuring you ultimately lose in the long term.

There is more to the scam

That, unfortunately, is not where it ends. Numerous “brokers” are notorious for spreading fictitious stories about their clientele making gigantic profits with trading robots. Almost all of them manipulate their price curves to prevent you from winning. What’s worse is even if you do win, many of them refuse to pay out, and ultimately drop off the face of the earth (with your money).
Now clients are left in with a major dilemma. To whom do they turn? To the police? To regulators? The answer to these questions is that it depends. Most of these binary options brokers are not regulated and are located offshore, allowing them to do what they want. Often in their terms and conditions, they concoct various rules that ensure they keep your money once they have it. When it comes to regulators such as ASIC or the FCA they are relatively useless as they cannot shut down the actual binary options websites and to make it even worse search engines such as Google allow these websites to appear in their search content.

Shouldn’t the banks put a stop to this?

Yes, they should. However, the banks, which should be the number one line of defense against these scams either do not know the extent of the problem or are turning a blind eye to their nefarious activities. Additionally, in order to process credit card, debit card payments most of the binary options brokers have registered a small company in an E.U. country.

Recovery scams

Unfortunately, fraud encourages more fraud. Various individuals targeted U.S. citizens who were swindled by the now-defunct brokerage, Banc de Binary, and a few other binary options companies that were being sued by the SEC or the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission). They impersonated SEC officials as part of an advanced-fee fraud scheme in which they deceived victims into forwarding them money. Approximately 95 individuals were targeted by this despicable scheme and 25 of them sent 235 thousand dollars in total to these swindlers.
What to Do if You Have Been Scammed
If you have fallen victim to a cryptocurrency scam, send a complaint to at [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]), and we will do our very best to get into contact with you as soon as we can to initiate your funds recovery process.
submitted by asaston to u/asaston [link] [comments]

Lost in the Ashlands. Reputation and Dialogue Checks.

Lost in the Ashlands. Reputation and Dialogue Checks.

Time for a quick update. First, I'm going to talk about getting a working reputation system, and then I'll show off a couple of new features for the war system overhaul.

Finding a Working Reputation System
Karma in games is often reductive, amounting to a binary "good or evil" system that's represented by a number. Dumb. Easier to implement and understand, yeah, but still dumb. I want more. Faction relations in games like Mount and Blade aren't brilliant either - they're great as an aggregate value, but suffer from one critical problem: memory. You might be a faction's sworn enemy, do some good, bribe some bribables, and suddenly you're in their good books. Kenshi certainly handles this better than most - kidnap a faction leader and you can bet there will be hell to pay. But it's not quite enough. Bandits should stop trying to steal your lunch money if you've taken down the Emperor.
I want a system where your actions generate a reputation naturally, by choice and action. It was a tough nut to crack, but I'm just about there with the structure.
Here's a quick rundown of how reputation will work.

Six Abstract Values
That's right. Six individual reputations. Each represents an abstract group in the game world, and a given value in one reputation might have an effect elsewhere. Here are the current drafts for reputation values. Note that reputation is not discrete, meaning there will probably be cases where multiple might apply. Moreover, don't expect reputation to apply in every instance of dialogue or interaction. As time goes on and you make your mark on the world, more characters will have heard of you or your actions.

The Downtrodden. Farmers, peasants, slaves and nomads. Everybody who's got the short end of the stick in the world of Kenshi. In game terms, this means Empire Peasants, Holy Nation Outlaws, Drifters, Slaves, Deadcat farmers, Settled Nomads, and so on. You get the idea.
Bandits, Brigands, and Broken Men. Just what you'd expect. Rebel Farmers, Starving Bandits, Dust Bandits - yet also factions such as Manhunters in some cases.
Scholars and Scribes. Those who value exploration and the pursuit of knowledge. Tech Hunters and Machinists, yes, but also adventuring types and certain diplomats.
The Empire Elite. Everything related to the United Cities. Nobles, Slave Traders, and the Guild fall under this category, as well as UC Generals.
The Inquisitorium. The One True Religion. Priests, inquisitors, HN Generals. This is probably the most narrow of the six reputations.
Followers of Kral. Everything Shek - not necessarily confined to the Shek Kingdom. Kral's Chosen, Berserkers, and others will be influenced by your reputation in this category.

What Will Reputation Do Differently to Faction Relations?
For starters, reputation allows for more nuanced interactions through dialogue with a graded system of 'ranks'. Changes to reputation happen naturally through gameplay. Help out a bunch of wandering samurai enough times and you might increase your reputation with the Empire. Murder a bunch of farmers? You can bet that NPCs will know you as Outland Terror before too long.
These interactions won't be limited to reactive stuff, either. Instead, where there are dialogue window events (particularly with dynamic quests), you'll be able to use your reputation to persuade or intimidate. 'Persuasion' meaning a high reputation with a relevant category, 'Intimidation' referring to a low reputation. In some, rarer cases, other reputations might supplant this. For example, if you're at Indifferent (+0) with the Downtrodden, but Empire Dignitary (+75) with the Empire Elite, you can bet that some lowly farmer peasant will be easier to push around.

High (appropriate) rep means better success in a dialogue check.

Reputation can also serve as memory. Currently, I'm setting it up to remember if you've ever had high (+75 to +100) reputation, low (-75 to -100) reputation, and the lowest (-100) reputation. You'll have a hard time getting your reputation (and related faction relations) up if you've ruined it, yet gaining increments to faction relations will, on occasion, be easier if you have high rep.
Dialogue will need to have a lot of expansions, too. This is elementary 'grind' work - it's easy enough to do, it'll just take time. High reputation in the Empire should enable you to have conversations with nobles and dignitaries. And so on.
What else? Well, even though I won't unlock any of it until the first dynamic quest update, reputation will influence quest options and pathways. Special events, too - you can bet that NPCs will begin to react to you differently as you walk your path through the game world. The occasional plot twist here and there*.* Perhaps you'll overhear a conversation of your exploits. Maybe annoying farmers will pester you for aid when your reputation is high enough when all you want to do is get a damn drink.

DUN DUN DUN. *Plot Twist*. Perhaps I should have made better choices.

What Ranks Are There?
I don't want to spoil too much. But here's the reputation list for the Downtrodden:
??? [-100]
Outland Terror [-75]
Violent Outlaw [-50]
Thug [-25]
Indifferent [+0]
Backwater Samurai [+25]
Benevolent Wanderer [+50]
Nomad Crusader [+75]
??? [+100]

Sneak Peek at the Coming Update.
Wars are spread out between 'military' (fortresses), 'civilian' (towns) and 'setpiece' locations. Assaults against towns are much rarer, bigger, badder campaigns that happen in multiple stages. Factions reinforce cities and forts, blah blah, I've gone over this before elsewhere. What I'm currently polishing up is getting the unique characters into the game world outside of battles. Generals inspecting a town with their personal guard, patrolling, being able to find them at fortresses they control, and so on. More possibility for interaction (and mischief!). That, and the setpiece battles, which are essentially empty battlefields where two armies can throw down. Great fun for the whole family. I'm ironing out some details there, though, so setpieces are currently a big 'maybe' - if it turns out pretty and fun, they'll go in the next update. If not, I'll probably rework them into assaults against military targets. On that note, around half of the fortresses you've seen are now gone. The Holy Nation uses Okran's Shield/Fist and its military bases as their 'military' targets, while the Shek have Last Stand and the Great Fortress (plus one extra fort). The United Cities, having no such settlements in vanilla, still have three forts. All of these locations are spruced up with NPCs you can interact with, and their residents will change based on what randomly-selected NPC lineup you've got going for you in your playthrough. You can cripple faction armies by taking down their forts - eliminating generals before they can do shit, or removing certain special abilities from the major facitons.
I'm not going to bore you with too many details, plus I'm lazy, so here are some random screenshots.

Oooohh, faction deserters.

Did I mention each faction has special units, campaigns, and events? They're tied to the NPC lineup. Usually, each faction has two special units or abilities (out of four). Each of the three warring factions has its own selection of abilities.

Let's have a chat, shall we?

Because of a particular General, the UC now have access to mercenaries for their wars. Here, a barracks is converted into a mercenary bar at a fortress. Eliminating a certain General, or one of his underlings, will harm or outright remove this special ability, affording the UC fewer expendable units to throw into battle.

submitted by BoronGorax to Kenshi [link] [comments]

strong trigger warning. are my feeling here valid?

this has stong wording and sexual assult and all types off abuse. please consider your mental health before reading thank you. all names in hear have been changed for the safety off all involved. i am about to go no contact with my mother for the abuse i have suffer at her hand but first i want to tell everyone what happened and how i feel. can you please tell me if i am being to harsh?

This has been one of the hardest posts I have ever had to make. I ask that you read everything before you reply. Please hear me out then you can say what you want but I want it known I have people who will be watching, all private messages will be screenshot, posted publicly and it is there that I will reply. So, you might as well just post your comment below and do not even try private messaging me if it is not supportive for what I have to say. Also, even supportive messages will be posted, no one here is special or discriminated against. This is about exposing my abuser and nothing more.
Ok let us get started. You once asked me what I had to be depressed about when I told you I was struggling. I hope this answers your question, but I do not think it will. You have stated that I was faking disabilities that I had not even heard of before I was even diagnosed with, you have made fun of a small child for being scared of a hallucination. I now know this is common for children with complex PTSD, imagine that.Overall, the point is you have disregarded my mental illness and believed my main abuser over me but let us move on.
I know this will not change your mind, that would take you recognising your narcissistic, toxic behaviour and that, honestly it is more likely that the gods would walk on this earth again than you admitting your behaviour. You have out rightly told me you have a diagnosis of bipolar type one. Funny thing about that, bipolar is enough to get you disability if you seek treatment but you wont and then you go off at me for seeking treatment for the disorders that i can place at your door. You go off at me for being on disability because i went and got help, but your mentile health is worse then mine and you still wont seek help. Seeking help would fix everything but you just wont and then you put that frustration on me.
You will read this, and you will not even know it is about you if I had not made it so very obvious by now, I know you know who this is about. I know you will not see why this is wrong. I am ok with that. You do not confront a bully because you think it will change their mind. You do it because they deserve to be called out, and you my dear deserve this more than most. I am not doing this for an apology. I am doing this for me to release you and to tell you I deserved better then what you did to me.
Underneath are a list of charges I lay at your feet. I want it known I did not want to do this; I have tried getting along with you, but I am over your smear campaign I am over the emotional blackmail, I’m over the abuse.
Point 1. how a loving mother acts when their child's life is indangour.
I would like to start this with one day about six months after I was born, you and the man you would proceed to have one more child with got into a fight and he threw me, A SIX MONTHS OLD INFANT onto the bed. You seem to think that because you were not the one to do the act you were not in the wrong here, but here is the thing. If you care for your kid and your partner puts that child in danger ONCE you leave.
NO, there is no excuse for staying, I do not care if you “loved” him, he threw your 6-month baby on a bed, at that point your child’s life is in danger, you leave.
Let us continue on shall we to the fact that even though YOU had escaped him, and you knew what he was capable of you continued to let him have unsupervised visits with me. I am sorry but if I have seen that my partner is in any way capable of aggression towards my kids, I am not leaving him alone with them. But you did. You insisted to not take away HIS rights, well what about mine? The minute I said I did not want to go with him, that should have been it. you should not have let him pressure me into going with him.
But let us be honest here shall we, we are placing way too much blame on Adam because you could be just as bad. I can only speak for me of course but I don’t remember you sober except when you were doing your HSC and even then I don’t think you were as “sober” as you wanted us all to believe.
Point 2. theft
You stole a 1000 dollars from me when i got compensation for the sexual abuse i suffered. I told you i did not want to go for compensation.I told you It made me feel like I was being paid for my assault, what did you do? You pushed me AGAINST MY WILL to go for compo even though i told you I DID NOT WANT IT! You did not think about how going over something so traumatic would make the whole thing worse, you just thought of the money, money i did not want. When i got it you asked to borrow a 1000 dollars and you would pay it back. i told you point black i needed it before my birthday because i was going to use it to give myself the best 21 ever. That never happened, in fact you said grandmother told you to keep the money and if you did pay it back she would disown you. Well now both your children want nothing to do with you, how does that feel? Also if what you said is true and grandmother did say this (which i don't think she did.) she can go get fucked too. You do not steal from your mentailly ill 20 year old child- you did.
Also dont try the, “i spent 1000s on you”, im your FUCKING CHILD. I did not ask to be born, i did not want to be born, I hate life. The only reason i'm not dead is the guilt you put in me for thinking i don't deserve to feel the way i do and killing myself would be “selfish”. So no you don't get to say that. You were selfish enough to want me, you spread your legs and you decided to keep me when you found out. That was your choice, take some fucking responsablity and stop trying to blame your kids for your shitty life choices. Giving us life in this climat and the climat back then wasnt a gift as you like to say, it was a fucking curse.
Point 3. what a loving mother does not do.
A loving mother does not say
“I don’t hate you, I hate your personality”
Glad you cleared that up mum when you said, “I hate you”.
“I love you, I just don’t like you right now.” I mean it’s not like
I wasn’t already being bullied at school on a daily basis, being told at school by the student body how much they hated me and when I moved schools because off my awkward and antisocial ways I was completely ostracised and I didn’t need love and support from you. (sarcasm)
On that note loving mothers do not deny their child physical affection when they are the only ones, they can get it from. No, I do not care what your excuse is. I do not care that is how your mum treated you, you always prided yourself on being the better parent well you were not you were an abusive bitch deal with it.
You do not hit or choke a bullied child because they do not want to go to the place where they have no friends and nothing to do on the best days and on the worst their life was in danger, I’m not even blowing this up they threw pieces of paper that were on fire at me.
I begged you to home-school me, but you wouldn’t and why? Because you didn’t know it was an option- if you cared you would have found out, you just didn’t want to be responsible for your disabled daughter’s education because you were disappointed in me for being dyslexic because heaven forbid your child not be good at English.
Point 4 how to get children to like each other.
You made me believe I was responsible for my sister protection. Every bit of resentment we held and still hold for each other would not be there if it had not been for the toxic behaviour you encouraged on both our sides. You should have separated us; you should have admitted you could not handle me. You should have let me go, but heaven forbid your ego take a hit.
Part 5. Child rasing
A good mother does not dump a 1 year old on an 11-year-old and a 9-year-old, you did. To the point that said child called me and the 9 year old mum. I had people at the shops thinking this child was mine. You were the adult, you should off been the one washing, feeding, taking care off him and yet you werent, we were.
Part 6. fertility
A loving mother doesn’t turn around to their clearly hurting and grieving child who is reaching out about pain they feel about their sister being able to do something they can’t and I quote- “it’s a good thing you can’t have children, because you wouldn’t make a good mother anyway”.
I am sorry, what? Who are you to say that to me? Maybe I should call aunty k give her a nice long list off how you have handled my miscarriages. “Oh but i understand i lost a child once” you had one miscarrgie that you only ever mentioned to down play my hurt at leaning i cant have kids. The only person in this family who has any right to say anything about my fertility problems is the only person in the family who could possibly understand at all and that person isnt you. Its aunty k.
I wanted children, i wanted a family. A big one. I want 10 kids and 8 dogs and a white picket fance. Im not going to get that naturally- witch cool i have no problem with adoption and if me and my partner ever decided we wanted a child that is probably the way we would go- BUT you want to tell me that my adopted child wouldnt be as LOVED that my FAMILY wouldnt be as real because i adopted. If you really believe that, why did you give up scott? I mean if you cared and loved your child - witch you have said you did, thats why you gave him up your words- why would you give him to someone if you believed they were incapable off loving that child as their own? You are a horrible human being who has fostered jealousy on more then one occasion between me and my sisters because they are physically healthy and abiled body and i am not.
If you honestly think i dont love my younger siblings nephews neices or any child of the people i love have with all i my heart or you think that i could love a child more because it come from my twat then you have no idea who the fuck i am. I dont even feel like i have the right to reach out and interact with my sibling children because im almost positive they hate me and honestly that can be placed with you too, and i dont blame them. Because you wouldn't be a parent i had to be the bitch. The one saying no. the one stopping shit that could hurt them. i was the only one trying to protect them. I saw where they were headed and tried to stop it. you were drunk.that should have been you. I love my siblings and could not be prouder off any off them but do not try to take responsibility for how we turned out, that wasn't you. That was us.
Also do not try to pin this on aunty d, she is a sweet kind woman who is shy and doesn't know how to assert herself. She gave up the wine, she showed unconditional love and support. The worst thing that woman has ever done to me is when i came out she told me she thought my sexuality was just a “phase” and I'd grow out of it. I didn't but that's ok, she also told me that day that she would love me no matter what and has never not done that.
If you want someone you can drag into your snake pitt take p his treatment off me compared to his own fucking kids was messed up. How was i the fucking favourt when i wasnt his god dam kid- and dont say i wasnt we all know i was.
Part 7. Traumatic situations.
Moving on to ten when my favourite uncle held us hostage. Did you know I saw that knife held to your neck while looking over the banister? I did. I saw my favourite uncle hold a knife to your neck and new me and my sister needed to get out which is why when you came up, I was trying to get my sister to leave. That is why I said the tree. You made the whole thing about you, it was all you. Me and my sister, we weren't traumatized, i didn't just lose the one person i felt like i had a connection to. No, the only person who mattered was you. To the point that when i broke down i was told i had to “stop crying” because YOU need me, a ten year old child, to be strong enough to handle YOUR truma. Thats not how that works.
Part 8. How to handle your child be sexually assaulted
How about 12? How about when the ongoing sexual harassment and inappropriate comments [grooming let us be honest} by my MOTHERS partner at the time was doing {that both me and my siblings had warned her about it and that we were uncomfortable. I am not protecting you anymore, you knew how we felt.} ended with him sexually assaulting me and another girl. {for her privacy I will not name her, but she knows who she is. If she wants to confront you that is on her.} while he was babysitting and why was he babysitting? Because you wanted to go out partying and do not say “oh well you said it was fine” I was 12 what else would I say?
Also after that you proceed to tell me about your sexual assault and that you had it so much worse. You said this while drunk and did not remember. You were in your 20s when you were assaulted, I WAS A CHILD! I was even a child the first time I was raped. You are not special, you want help see a doctor stop putting it on me and my siblings- also get some help your not ok, you have never been ok, the fact you put this on a CHILD proves your not ok. You have told me so much shit when drunk to discredited my assaults i don't even know if what you said was true anymore but ill give you the benefit and say it is. In witch case you are not coping you are an abusive alcoholic who doesn't even see the damage they're doing around them. Get help.
I have a massive problem with understanding what is and isn't appropriate to say now, i don't understand social situations. That was your fault. Your the one who didnt teach me what is and isnt appropriate in sexual situations. Im reteaching myself this, i use to think this is because off how open everyone was, aunty j aunty k ec, but its not. That should off tought me body confidence and kindness not an inability to decipher when im making someone uncomfortable with sexual comments. You made the talk off sex so common that now the idea off people being uncomfortable with it is confusing to me. That should off been part of the conversation, why wasnt it?
Part 9 how to deal with bullying
Under all of this is the ongoing systematic bullying that went from kindy till year 10, why did it go on for so long? Because when you were given the option to move me to another district in year 6 you kept us in the same town because you did not want to separate my sister from her friends. If you had put me first for once I would never have hurt. I am going to leave this hear but you know you did more, and I have no problem airing all your dirty laundry mother.
So, what is the result of what is clearly intense abuse you may ask?
  1. I have DID
under this post or maybe above will be another post naming off my alters and explain what DID is and how it affects me, but for those wondering I have 8 main personalities 1 who has not made themselves none and two “sleeping”.
  1. Anorexia and bulimia and honestly, I do not blame anyone I went to school with but how did me vomiting after lunch every day not tip anyone off? How did me starving myself never get caught? Honest question. I mean i know you all didnt like me in school, but did no one see how much i was hurting? I needed help. Why did no one offer?
  2. PTSD, what do I say here? If you think you could get through what I went through, good luck.
  3. Bipolar schizoaffective disorder- it is a chemical imbalance in the brain, so I do not know what you want from me.
You have bullied and belittled me for my weight. You have put your own traumatic past on me when I was a minor and asking for help. It is not my job to get you through your trauma, I am your child, not your sister. YOU should be fixing mine. You should have been taking care of me loving me, instead you treated me like your own personal shrink and then got angry when I was hurt at you cutting me out after aunty k died. I never should have thought my job was to comfort you, your job was to comfort me.
Considering you cannot seem to understand the concept that you might be in the wrong. You even decided to out my sexuality to the family and were actively betting on my sexuality-that is not normal, that is not ok, that is not accepting. - you did this even though you knew we have a cousin who is like me and who was kicked from the family.
You even raised me knowing that no one, not even me, can connect with this family member because you all kicked him so fair from the family no one has heard from him since before i was born. YOU STILL THOUGHT YOU HAD THE RIGHT TO OUT ME! HOW FUCKING DARE YOU. even if none off this was true it was my choice when, if or how i came out to my family, you took that away from me. That alone is enough for me to disown you. I had been fucking careful once i had grandma on my page. Yes i am big in lgbtq rights but i didnt start saying online that i was queer till you took that right away.
So, as we no longer have the right to come out how we want this is our coming out. we have DID as such I am not a girl or a boy, we have both male and female alters in our system. Our system's name is starlight. We are not one person. We as a whole identify as non-binary. Our sexuality is pansexual-demiromantic.
My name is not Madison, I only went by that because I didn’t want to try to get people to call me by my preferred name, I tried that I asked you to call me star, you couldn’t respect that because I chose it myself and nicknames can’t be “chosen” so you have called me by a completely different name to what mine actually is.
So just that we are clear
My name is (Insert name here)
My pronouns are he/him
I have 7 other active alters with their own gender and sexuality. You do not need to remember them all; we are happy with they/them as there is
more than one of us.
Also, you have meet my alters you just do not know me well enough
to tell the differences.
So what can we gather from all this?
You were an abusive person, i didnt blame you for my childhood before but i do now. You are completely responsible for my shitty childhood.if you had been a responsable sobor adult none of this would of happen. You took away my freedom and left me with the only choice of “do what YOU want” with me having no right to my own life or die. That's not a choice, that's the illusion of choice and you even took that away from me when uncle todd died, you told me what he did was selfish, you said killing myself was selfish. You took away my only way out and still dont see how you were wrong. After that you TRIED to take your life too, like shit your the biggest hypocrite i know.
You will never be left along with my CHILD, hell you will be lucky if you even know if i give birth. This is me saing im going no contact if you couldnt tell by now. Stay the fuck out off my life and anyone who wants to justifie or support her abuse ass can see them self out.
If you want my forgiveness you can start by returning the money you stole and issuing a public apology admitting to the shit i didnt say to prove you understand you are in the wrong. Keep in mind i have no issue handing the phone i have into the police and leaving you to deal with it if you in anyway attack me for this post. If you apologise i might for give you, if you chose to leave me the fuck alone the money will be in once a month. if you attack me, call me consistently or call me a lier and refuse to take responsibility for your actions i will just stop paying the bill and hand it too the police, i dont need it, i will survive with out it. you will not be able to pay the bill. Chose what you want to do.

thank you for reading this any advice would be grate.
submitted by lilylightfang to survivorsofabuse [link] [comments]

[UK] Personal trading compliance in banks

So I currently work for a bank (tech, not trading or front office), and I have read the personal investment policies which include:
The following Personal Investment Activities are strictly prohibited:
(ix) spread betting, short selling (e.g. financial instruments including FX but not sports related)
(x) placing good till cancelled orders, Limit Orders, and/or Binary Options
(xi) undertaking transactions in short term or speculative products
(xii) trading in Contract for Differences.
(xiii) participating in Day Trading;
So basically it looks like I can't do anything. But how would the company investigate these issues, there are thousands of employees and surely not everyone is disclosing their investments. Can anyone really find out? Does the FCA realistically investigate employees for their own trading activities?
I really want to practice some day trading on the side (if I trade US markets at 2:30 GMT its doable while working at home) but it seems like I can't unless I work for a different employer.
submitted by anonypos to Daytrading [link] [comments]

Overarching Theory of Names and Roles

My comprehensive fundamental theory about Names, Roles, heroism and villainy (maybe not really all that comprehensive, but pretty damn fundamental if I say so myself)
Basic Name mechanics.
Point #1: it is not necessary to assert that acquisition of Names is decided by Gods Above and Below on a case-by-case basis. If you do X, Y, Z in situation A, you get a particular Name. Maybe situation A arose because Gods nudged things around so it would, but you don't need to know that to predict Name acquisition with science-level accuracy. If you know the local causal inputs in Creation you can predict whether there'll be a Name and what it'll be, Gods don't weigh in additionally and say that (for example) no, Black may have taken Cat as a Squire but Gods Above like her better than Gods Below do so she gets Light powers anyway. The result can be fully predicted out of the mindset, action and circumsances of agents in Creation. Adding "and the Gods did it" doesn't help you any, and in fact serves to confuse when you try to predict outcomes based on that premise. The predictions are simpler and more accurate if you throw the Gods' will out of the model.
If you are trying to solve a first grade math problem of "I have 3 apples and give away 2 apples, how many apples do I have left?" it doesn't matter where the apples came from or who you gave them to. You can get the amount of apples left immediately in your hand from just doing the math, even if it seems like it would be fair if you were left with more apples than you started with to reward your generosity. Maybe eventually you will be given more apples as reward, but you get the local result first.
Point #2: Story/narrative/Role/Name/Providence outcomes are all determined by a single mechanism / fundamental law / what have you. That law was originally set in place by the Gods Above and Below, presumably, but currently functions mechanistically and without a long-term agenda. It takes a series of inputs, processes them in a black box, and gives a series of outputs. To the degree that you can manipulate the inputs, you can manipulate the outputs. People call it 'cheating' based on social convention, but you can't really cheat laws of physics. Getting a villain resurrected by a Choir is cheating providence in the same sense that making a working plane is cheating gravity. It's not the usual outcome, but it's perfectly lawful and predictable within the system.
Point #3: The inputs this mechanism takes to determine any particular situation are on a basic level "what people think". If at the dawn of time, before any grooves existed, 10 heroes individually at different times fell off a cliff and 9 of them died, it's the 10th one who survived that will be remembered. And it's based on that memory that the grooves are cut: the 9 who died don't cut a groove despite being more numerous because they are less significant to other people. Eventually it becomes "the hero survives the fall 99 times out of 100", because only 1 time in 100 it's the "hero breaks a neck falling down a cliff" outcome that is memorable and makes a good story (it's when the hero was an idiot and this is delicious irony; see also: Exiled Prince's death).
Point #4: The inputs are based on hypothetical knowledge. They are not "what this person thinks about A", they are "what this person would think about A if they were the omniscient narrator of this story". If a thief steals jewels out of every single rich person's house in a city, even if people cannot necessarily guess that it was all one person because that's just how good the thief is at laying false trails, it remains true that if they knew it was a single person they would call that person "the thief" or "the jewelry thief", and so they get a corresponding Name without anyone involved necessarily realizing that's what's happening.
Point #5: The inputs are also weighed by locality, where locality is determined by "do these events impact this person's life in any way". It matters very little what people in Yan Tei would think about Cat if they knew her story - her exploits don't impact them in any noticable way. It matters very much what the people of Callow think about her, because they're the ones first in the line for getting impacted by any particular action of hers - or these days, people of Procer. It doesn't matter much what Ashurans think, though, all the way over there on their island, even less so what elves or Gigantes think (although still more than the Yan Tei). You're not involved => you don't get input.
(Exception: Arcadia. Stories there are determined by what mortals of the corresponding culture think, not what fae think. Fae don't generate their own stories)
Point #6: You cannot predict the story by asking just one person. Maybe they disagree on 60 details out of 100 with their neighbour - it's the 40 that they have in common that overlap and amplify to impact the story. If the details of Catherine's thought processes would be judged 101 different ways by a given 100 people, but the details of what she actually did taken in isolation would get a single judgement, then the pattern of the story straight up doesn't take into account what she thinks. On the other hand, if what she thought at a particular time would get a single strong reaction from everyone, then it has impact.
Point #7, somewhat aggregating all of the above: Names are based on cultural archetypes. An aggregate idea of what a person can be like and how that person will act and what'll happen to them, as exists within a particular culture / set of closely interacting cultures. You get an idea of what "an adjutant" is and how "an adjutant" acts, spherical in a vacuum, and if someone comes along that is exactly like that in a way that's signficant to a lot of people around them, it becomes a Name. If people can't make heads of tails of what you're doing based on ideas and stories already in their head, then no matter how much it impacts their life, you aren't getting a Name until they DO form an impression and slap a label on it. On the other hand, if what you're doing is archetypically clear but utterly inconsequential - if you heroically rescued a cup from breaking and fell down a chair in the process, or if you're a very good adjutant to a no-name nobody - you're not geting a Name either. Would people care if they knew?
Corollary #1: this is why ruling Names are common. People tend to care en masse about what their rulers do.
Corollary #2: this is why fractured cultures like Procer and Everdark don't get a lot of Names. If the nisi of one sigil don't care what the leader of another sigil did and don't want to know, that person isn't getting a Name. Everyone in Callow cares what the Shining Prince did; people of Procer would like to know less about what the Prince of a neighbouring principality is up to.
Corollary #3: and the reason why subjugated cultures don't get a lot of Named is because people just don't get a chance to matter and make an impact. If a slave who would hypothetically lead a rebellion dies before he gets to more than talking rebellious talk to other slaves, there aren't a lot of ripples from that.
Terminology clarification: what the fuck is a "Role"?
"A Role is the function of a Name in the pattern (as in, a Tyrant is meant to rule and a Thief to steal)." - WoE
That ^ is not the only thing the word "Role" is used to mean in Guideverse. We also have Akua's "it's the Role that matters, not the Name" in Chiaroscuro; what does that mean?
It means that a Role is the function of [you] in a pattern. In that story that everyone hypothetically knows (see above), what would they cast you as? It's not necessarily the same thing as what your Name implies: pattern of three is Name-independent, and Indrani breaking the spell on Masego in Twilight by sacrificing herself in an attempt to rescue him did not depend on what either of their Names were, either. Those moments don't often get referred to as uppercase Role, but it's one of the meanings of the word.
A Role and a Name are often referred to as interchangeable, because a Name is unseparably tied to a Role. A generic Name that is not instantiated - a Squire, not this specific Squire - has a broader Role: "a Squire is apprenticed to, or wants to become, or is following in the footsteps of, a Knight". A specific instance of a Name - the Squire who is Catherine Foundling - has a narrower one: "is apprenticed to the current Black Knight of Praes who is Amadeus of the Green Stretch" (that fits within / is a subset of the more generic one).
A Role is like a causal interface through which the instantiated Name (the growth on a person's soul that gives them powers) is impacted by events in Creation. The price of grain in Ashur doesn't impact Masego's Name because his Role does not include statements related to the price of grain; but it might impact Malicia's, because her Role includes statements about inspiring dread in other countries, of which the price of grain is one of the available venues. Losing an army would not impact Tariq's Name because his Role is not that of a leader of armies, but it did impact Amadeus's, because his instance of Black Knight was very much about that.
But not every Role is tied to a Name. To generate a Name, a Role needs to be (1) significantly impactful (technically, "dead background peasant #23" is also a Role - it's something you might get to play in a threatre production of the story), (2) archetypically clear (if people don't associate your Role with a specific verbal label, you don't get a power-conferring verbal label on your Role).
Yes, this contradicts the literal interpretation of the statement in Prologue I about how Gods gave Names to Roles. So does this WoG: "There would be no cultural drive anywhere on Calernia to birth a Name like Grey Knight, which effectively ensure it could not come into being." The Prologue exposition is a quote from The Book of All Things, and The Book of All Things is acknowledged as not a reliable source in-universe.
Anyway, to figure out if something is a Role or not, or what the Roles are in a given context: a Role is a possible set of lines / stage directions you might get as an actor in a theatre production of the story it's a Role in.
On heroism and villainy
Actually, this is the part I wanted to write. All of the above is just prerequisites to understanding how I think about the whole thing. Not that I don't consider having written that valuable and important on its own!
Basic non-trivial evidence points we have about heroism and vilainy:
  • whether a person is a "hero" or not determines whether or not they can kill demons, so the differentiation has testable binary causal impact;
  • some Named are clearly heroic, some are clearly villainous, and some, as Cat put it "tread the path between both, leaning one way or another based on circumstance", and Indrani in book 2 as one of the latter did not know whether she could kill a demon if she tried;
  • Names don't oscillate much: you get a Name, and as long as it fits if you squint the right way and there isn't a clear transition story, you keep it no matter what other Name you might have fit in the meantime. Tancred isn't going to go from Scorched Apostate to Apprentice to Squire to whatnot based on whatever's happening at any given moment, you need to specifically lose a Name to gain another;
  • ruthless utilitarianism does not disqualify you as a hero, see: Tariq.
I would propose the following 4 levels on which hero/villain differentiation works: (1) local, (2) political, (3) name-inherent, (4) resulting.
(1) Local.
This is the story you're most currently and immediately in. This is the sense in which Catherine was heroic in Liesse, and it's the sense that determines what's happening at any given time in Arcadia, much more strongly than in Creation. Hero/villain in this sense is 'how a random person from the set of those impacted, on average, would judge this situation if they knew every part of it'. Mind, 'this situation' and 'every part' is not a clear delineation: if based on how much context a person got they would give different judgements, you have multiple stories happening at the same time, and their impact basically sums up weighed by how well they fit and how much people would care / get impacted by any particular level.
(IE: very few people care about 'some guy killed his nephew'. They would agree it's terrible but they wouldn't really give a shit about that alone. People of Levant care much more about 'our Seljun got killed by his uncle', but nobody outside Levant would. And it's 'the Grey Pilgrim killed the Seljun about to start a war' that has continental impact, so that's the level that has narrativium weight overriding the other two)
(2) Political.
See also: the House of Light in Callow asserting that Crusade's heroes were villains in disguise. See also: Thief going from hero to villain in everyone's eyes when she switched banners. See also: Captain being a villain because she followed the Black Knight who was a villain regardless of how nice she might have been in person, and Page being a hero because she followed the Exiled Prince who was a hero, regardless of whether she ever actually did anything heroic for other people.
This level includes both important points (following a villain has something of a causal impact on other people's lives...) and arbitrary bullshit that is recognizable as arbitrary bullshit in-universe. However, narrative takes input from "what people think", and there's a whole cultural thing about The Choice That You Have, The Only One That Ever Matters, so regardless of how arbitrary it might be, (2) matters on its own.
Also, more mundanely, this is the level on which most people judge whether someone is a hero or a villain. It's just the only information they have immediate access to, for Named they never met in person. It's very rarely that a person can be assumed to be referring to directly the actual fact (see point 4 further down) - they need to have very good information and a very good grasp of narrative mechanics to actually access that. I'd single out Catherine-as-of-Book-5, Tariq, Amadeus and Kairos as somewhat reliable narrators in this, and I'm not sure about Amadeus either. Notably, someone's knowledge of (4) (or thinking they have knowledge of (4) and other people believing them) can spread to form (2) if they're influential.
To clarify, (2) is an interaction of what a person thinks about themselves and what other people think about them. People tend to update their own beliefs about themselves based on what other people think of them, too, and group with other people who think like them regardless of alignment, and... Basically, it's a mess if you're trying to predict what it will be in a non-trivial situation, but because of the point above it's fairly easy to determine: it's literally what's said.
This is also the sense in which Bard was demanding that Anaxares pick a side in Epilogue 3. His position in other people's eyes - with the League being mixed heroic-villainous - put him in a neutral (2) position, which she and/or the Gods didn't like in context, for one reason or another. Him picking a side deliberately by deciding he wanted to follow a certain set of Gods would be sufficient to remedy that, but him not doing that and going to Kairos for an alliance was also sufficient to remedy that, because politically that put him with villains.
(3) Inherent to a Name.
This refers to alignment inherent to a given instance of a Name - that which is determined when a particular person gets it, and stays until the Name changes. A single instance of a Name is tied to a particular set of Aspects. Catherine had 2 instances of Squire at different points.
This is where we really enter into the realm of speculation, because (1) and (2) so far are just description of obvious processes. This is where I begin to draw inferences, and where the model becomes useful for predicting as yet unseen outcomes.
So, here we have three options:
  • inherently heroic; Light wielders. These Names rely heavily on keeping (1) up to win / not die / have their Aspects activate: see Tariq's musings about Catherine's surrender at Prince's Graveyard, and how it would interact with Shine. You also cannot get this if your (2) at the moment of the Name instantiating is heavily enough on the wrong side of the board, and likely lose it if it goes low enough later, too: if you want to support Below, you don't get Light regardless of how good a person you might be and how good a reason you might have for that. The Gods don't play fair (didn't play fair when they constructed the system, to be more precise);
  • inherently undefined (also referred to as neutral) - most Names, actually. These Names are based on skill, or very specific circumstance (see: Hierarch), or accident of birth (see: Cursed). Archer, Ranger and Thief as the ones we have confirmation for; speculatively also Rogue Sorcerer, Adjutant, Hierophant, Page, Captain, any Brigand/Bandit, etc. These are the Names that completely don't depend on (1) and (2): the basic pattern that forms them works the same way either way. Their Aspects aren't depowered by being in the wrong, and they can switch sides without contradicting their Name's Role in any way. The people holding these Names tend, on Calernia at least, to have a defined (2)-alignment, meaning the existence of this category is not trivially obvious. To determine that it exists, you need to observe Ranger and her students who are an exception to that rule (Archer, likely also Beastmaster, likely some others as well), and to determine that it is separate from (2) and not tied to it, you need to observe people switching (2) sides without penalty, like Thief;
  • inherently villainous; those Names that get multiple active claimants at the same time, those Names that you need to deliberately claim to make yours. They get Below's support, and if you go the wrong way in (2), you lose them / they weaken: see Cat's Name throwing a fit after she accidentally started what could be a redemption arc, in Book 1. Note that (1) is irrelevant here. Below doesn't want you to kick puppies, it just doesn't care if you do. However, the thought patterns that Below incentivizes and rewards here - tendency towards conflict - tend to lead to and correlate with (1)-villainy, meaning there is a statistical bias. It's just more difficult to meet these prerequisites if you're (1)-heroic (although Amadeus might go on a disagreeing rant lmao), and more difficult to be (1)-heroic while pursuing them (which Cat would confirm, her eye subtly twitching).
An interesting aside here is that I am not sure Diabolist was (3)-villainous and not (3)-neutral: she didn't need to beat other claimants to the Name, she just had to prove she had the specific magery skill and tendency towards using it. Would her Name weaken if she somehow managed to go on a redemption arc without dying and without abandoning her craft? (WoE: "There’s nothing inherently bad about any kind of magic in the Guideverse", regardless of what Repentant Magister might think.)
Anyway, all of this brings us to (4).
(4) The resulting, total, complex alignment
...that nonetheless apparently has a defined binary value. You cannot halfway be able to kill demons, you either can or not. I am assuming here that this is an actual thing and everyone isn't just talking out of their ass and mistaking correlation with causation, and there really was a difference between Hunter and Archer at Marchford in that one could kill the demon and the other (probably) couldn't. And that Below really did start racking up points for Thief's victories when she switched to Cat's banner, despite nothing about her actual goals changing in the process.
Why this is not the same as (2)? Because I would assert that if you're just doing horrifyingly villainous shit while wanting Above and heroes to win, in general, as long as it's not against you personally, you're racking up points for Below and couldn't kill a demon even if neither you (who is delusional/stupid/doesn't know how Names work) nor other people (who don't know what you did) think so (which is what (2) refers to).
This is a complex value that will be set to 'villain' if you're a 'villain' by any one of the three metrics above. If you are a (3)-villain - have an inherently villainous Name - got sponsored by Below* specifically in the moment you got it and haven't lost it since, - it doesn't matter if you're kinda ehh on the (2) metric (don't give a shit about sides and don't have a reputation that would solidly put you on one side or another in other people's eyes) and are currently doing good on the (1). Until and unless your Name changes, you're a (4)-villain. If you're a (2)-villain, aka are on the side of Praes and don't see what's wrong with doing rituals to Below, even if your Name is inherently Neutral and you're currently doing good, you're a (4)-villain. And importantly - the thing that makes the whole system come together and reliably have heroes be, in fact, heroes - if you're doing lowercase evil (as defined by the culture you operate in and interact with and causally impact, see: the slavery issue), it doesn't matter if you profess heroic (2) and have a skill-based Name. You're a (4)-villain, and presumably Named with sufficiently sharp senses can tell (or at least Hanno's coin can).
* The sponsoring is automatic, as defined above. Think of it as Below having a scholarship that you can get if you meet the bureaucratic prerequisites. They don't have to know or care who you are, you just have to file the right paperwork - fit the right story, in this context.
The curious case of Tancred
So in light of all of the above, what's up with the Scorched Apostate?
I would argue he is plausibly (1)-heroic: again, as we've seen with Tariq, ruthless utilitarianism does not violate that condition, he was motivated selflessly, and Catherine compared him to the Saint of Swords for a reason.
The Name Scorched Apostate does not seem to meet any of the (3)-villainous prerequisites: it is not ambition-based (he did not deliberately set out to claim it), it did not involve defeating rivals (he cut through those mundanes like a scythe through grass...), and the archetype behind the Name is not necessarily villainous if the church you're renouncing as an Apostate is corrupt. Note the "fake priest" part of his story, and also the general... everything of the House of Light in Procer. I bet Hanno would hear the word "apostate" and shake his hand, because see: "speaking for the silent Heavens" as his opinion.
This leaves (2), and this is where Cat pulled a bit of a sleight of hand. By default, Tancred very much was aligned with heroes. He wanted to wield Light for fuck's sake; and he got all riled up at the idea of villains getting amnesty for their shit. He's Proceran and has no political sympathies towards Praes, Everdark, whathaveyou.
But Catherine said that he was a villain. And instead of going "there is no way that is correct", he went "oh, this makes sense" and incorporated that as a part of his self-image. Sure, he still doesn't want to pay due to Below, but between his self-identification and Catherine claiming him as hers in everyone else's eyes too and referring to him as a villain in her own internal monologue? Yep, he's a (4)-villain now. Cat's politically influential enough to just... do that to people purely through (2).
And in the process, push the word 'villain' towards meaning 'antihero' in public consciousness, which I'm sure will have no wide-reaching long-term cultural consequences whatsoever... :D
Feedback, clarifications, corrections, additions all welcome!
submitted by LilietB to PracticalGuideToEvil [link] [comments]

Beginner’s Guide to BitMEX

Beginner’s Guide to BitMEX
Founded by HDR Global Trading Limited (which in turn was founded by former bankers Arthur Hayes, Samuel Reed and Ben Delo) in 2014, BitMEX is a trading platform operating around the world and registered in the Seychelles.
Meaning Bitcoin Mercantile Exchange, BitMEX is one of the largest Bitcoin trading platforms currently operating, with a daily trading volume of over 35,000 BTC and over 540,000 accesses monthly and a trading history of over $34 billion worth of Bitcoin since its inception.
Unlike many other trading exchanges, BitMEX only accepts deposits through Bitcoin, which can then be used to purchase a variety of other cryptocurrencies. BitMEX specialises in sophisticated financial operations such as margin trading, which is trading with leverage. Like many of the exchanges that operate through cryptocurrencies, BitMEX is currently unregulated in any jurisdiction.
Visit BitMEX

How to Sign Up to BitMEX

In order to create an account on BitMEX, users first have to register with the website. Registration only requires an email address, the email address must be a genuine address as users will receive an email to confirm registration in order to verify the account. Once users are registered, there are no trading limits. Traders must be at least 18 years of age to sign up.
However, it should be noted that BitMEX does not accept any US-based traders and will use IP checks to verify that users are not in the US. While some US users have bypassed this with the use of a VPN, it is not recommended that US individuals sign up to the BitMEX service, especially given the fact that alternative exchanges are available to service US customers that function within the US legal framework.
How to Use BitMEX
BitMEX allows users to trade cryptocurrencies against a number of fiat currencies, namely the US Dollar, the Japanese Yen and the Chinese Yuan. BitMEX allows users to trade a number of different cryptocurrencies, namely Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Dash, Ethereum, Ethereum Classic, Litecoin, Monero, Ripple, Tezos and Zcash.
The trading platform on BitMEX is very intuitive and easy to use for those familiar with similar markets. However, it is not for the beginner. The interface does look a little dated when compared to newer exchanges like Binance and Kucoin’s.
Once users have signed up to the platform, they should click on Trade, and all the trading instruments will be displayed beneath.
Clicking on the particular instrument opens the orderbook, recent trades, and the order slip on the left. The order book shows three columns – the bid value for the underlying asset, the quantity of the order, and the total USD value of all orders, both short and long.
The widgets on the trading platform can be changed according to the user’s viewing preferences, allowing users to have full control on what is displayed. It also has a built in feature that provides for TradingView charting. This offers a wide range of charting tool and is considered to be an improvement on many of the offering available from many of its competitors.
Once trades are made, all orders can be easily viewed in the trading platform interface. There are tabs where users can select their Active Orders, see the Stops that are in place, check the Orders Filled (total or partially) and the trade history. On the Active Orders and Stops tabs, traders can cancel any order, by clicking the “Cancel” button. Users also see all currently open positions, with an analysis if it is in the black or red.
BitMEX uses a method called auto-deleveraging which BitMEX uses to ensure that liquidated positions are able to be closed even in a volatile market. Auto-deleveraging means that if a position bankrupts without available liquidity, the positive side of the position deleverages, in order of profitability and leverage, the highest leveraged position first in queue. Traders are always shown where they sit in the auto-deleveraging queue, if such is needed.
Although the BitMEX platform is optimized for mobile, it only has an Android app (which is not official). There is no iOS app available at present. However, it is recommended that users use it on the desktop if possible.
BitMEX offers a variety of order types for users:
  • Limit Order (the order is fulfilled if the given price is achieved);
  • Market Order (the order is executed at current market price);
  • Stop Limit Order (like a stop order, but allows users to set the price of the Order once the Stop Price is triggered);
  • Stop Market Order (this is a stop order that does not enter the order book, remain unseen until the market reaches the trigger);
  • Trailing Stop Order (it is similar to a Stop Market order, but here users set a trailing value that is used to place the market order);
  • Take Profit Limit Order (this can be used, similarly to a Stop Order, to set a target price on a position. In this case, it is in respect of making gains, rather than cutting losses);
  • Take Profit Market Order (same as the previous type, but in this case, the order triggered will be a market order, and not a limit one)
The exchange offers margin trading in all of the cryptocurrencies displayed on the website. It also offers to trade with futures and derivatives – swaps.

Futures and Swaps

A futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell a given asset in the future at a predetermined price. On BitMEX, users can leverage up to 100x on certain contracts.
Perpetual swaps are similar to futures, except that there is no expiry date for them and no settlement. Additionally, they trade close to the underlying reference Index Price, unlike futures, which may diverge substantially from the Index Price.
BitMEX also offers Binary series contracts, which are prediction-based contracts which can only settle at either 0 or 100. In essence, the Binary series contracts are a more complicated way of making a bet on a given event.
The only Binary series betting instrument currently available is related to the next 1mb block on the Bitcoin blockchain. Binary series contracts are traded with no leverage, a 0% maker fee, a 0.25% taker fee and 0.25% settlement fee.

Bitmex Leverage

BitMEX allows its traders to leverage their position on the platform. Leverage is the ability to place orders that are bigger than the users’ existing balance. This could lead to a higher profit in comparison when placing an order with only the wallet balance. Trading in such conditions is called “Margin Trading.”
There are two types of Margin Trading: Isolated and Cross-Margin. The former allows the user to select the amount of money in their wallet that should be used to hold their position after an order is placed. However, the latter provides that all of the money in the users’ wallet can be used to hold their position, and therefore should be treated with extreme caution.
The BitMEX platform allows users to set their leverage level by using the leverage slider. A maximum leverage of 1:100 is available (on Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash). This is quite a high level of leverage for cryptocurrencies, with the average offered by other exchanges rarely exceeding 1:20.

BitMEX Fees

For traditional futures trading, BitMEX has a straightforward fee schedule. As noted, in terms of leverage offered, BitMEX offers up to 100% leverage, with the amount off leverage varying from product to product.
However, it should be noted that trading at the highest leverages is sophisticated and is intended for professional investors that are familiar with speculative trading. The fees and leverage are as follows:
However, there are additional fees for hidden / iceberg orders. A hidden order pays the taker fee until the entire hidden quantity is completely executed. Then, the order will become normal, and the user will receive the maker rebate for the non-hidden amount.

Deposits and Withdrawals

BitMEX does not charge fees on deposits or withdrawals. However, when withdrawing Bitcoin, the minimum Network fee is based on blockchain load. The only costs therefore are those of the banks or the cryptocurrency networks.
As noted previously, BitMEX only accepts deposits in Bitcoin and therefore Bitcoin serves as collateral on trading contracts, regardless of whether or not the trade involves Bitcoin.
The minimum deposit is 0.001 BTC. There are no limits on withdrawals, but withdrawals can also be in Bitcoin only. To make a withdrawal, all that users need to do is insert the amount to withdraw and the wallet address to complete the transfer.
Deposits can be made 24/7 but withdrawals are processed by hand at a recurring time once per day. The hand processed withdrawals are intended to increase the security levels of users’ funds by providing extra time (and email notice) to cancel any fraudulent withdrawal requests, as well as bypassing the use of automated systems & hot wallets which may be more prone to compromise.

Supported Currencies

BitMEX operates as a crypto to crypto exchange and makes use of a Bitcoin-in/Bitcoin-out structure. Therefore, platform users are currently unable to use fiat currencies for any payments or transfers, however, a plus side of this is that there are no limits for trading and the exchange incorporates trading pairs linked to the US Dollar (XBT), Japanese Yen (XBJ), and Chinese Yuan (XBC).
BitMEX supports the following cryptocurrencies:
  • Bitcoin (XBT)
  • Bitcoin Cash (BCH)
  • Ethereum (ETH)
  • Ethereum Classic (ETC)
  • Litecoin (LTC)
  • Ripple Token (XRP)
  • Monero (XMR)
  • Dash (DASH)
  • Zcash (ZEC)
  • Cardano (ADA)
  • Tron (TRX)
  • EOS Token (EOS)
BitMEX also offers leverage options on the following coins:
  • 5x: Zcash (ZEC)
  • 20x : Ripple (XRP),Bitcoin Cash (BCH), Cardano (ADA), EOS Token (EOS), Tron (TRX)
  • 25x: Monero (XMR)
  • 33x: Litecoin (LTC)
  • 50x: Ethereum (ETH)
  • 100x: Bitcoin (XBT), Bitcoin / Yen (XBJ), Bitcoin / Yuan (XBC)

Trading Technologies International Partnership

HDR Global Trading, the company which owns BitMEX, has recently announced a partnership with Trading Technologies International, Inc. (TT), a leading international high-performance trading software provider.
The TT platform is designed specifically for professional traders, brokers, and market-access providers, and incorporates a wide variety of trading tools and analytical indicators that allow even the most advanced traders to customize the software to suit their unique trading styles. The TT platform also provides traders with global market access and trade execution through its privately managed infrastructure and the partnership will see BitMEX users gaining access to the trading tools on all BitMEX products, including the popular XBT/USD Perpetual Swap pairing.

The BitMEX Insurance Fund

The ability to trade on leverage is one of the exchange’s main selling points and offering leverage and providing the opportunity for traders to trade against each other may result in a situation where the winners do not receive all of their expected profits. As a result of the amounts of leverage involved, it’s possible that the losers may not have enough margin in their positions to pay the winners.
Traditional exchanges like the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) offset this problem by utilizing multiple layers of protection and cryptocurrency trading platforms offering leverage cannot currently match the levels of protection provided to winning traders.
In addition, cryptocurrency exchanges offering leveraged trades propose a capped downside and unlimited upside on a highly volatile asset with the caveat being that on occasion, there may not be enough funds in the system to pay out the winners.
To help solve this problem, BitMEX has developed an insurance fund system, and when a trader has an open leveraged position, their position is forcefully closed or liquidated when their maintenance margin is too low.
Here, a trader’s profit and loss does not reflect the actual price their position was closed on the market, and with BitMEX when a trader is liquidated, their equity associated with the position drops down to zero.
In the following example, the trader has taken a 100x long position. In the event that the mark price of Bitcoin falls to $3,980 (by 0.5%), then the position gets liquidated with the 100 Bitcoin position needing to be sold on the market.
This means that it does not matter what price this trade executes at, namely if it’s $3,995 or $3,000, as from the view of the liquidated trader, regardless of the price, they lose all the equity they had in their position, and lose the entire one Bitcoin.
Assuming there is a fully liquid market, the bid/ask spread should be tighter than the maintenance margin. Here, liquidations manifest as contributions to the insurance fund (e.g. if the maintenance margin is 50bps, but the market is 1bp wide), and the insurance fund should rise by close to the same amount as the maintenance margin when a position is liquidated. In this scenario, as long as healthy liquid markets persist, the insurance fund should continue its steady growth.
The following graphs further illustrate the example, and in the first chart, market conditions are healthy with a narrow bid/ask spread (just $2) at the time of liquidation. Here, the closing trade occurs at a higher price than the bankruptcy price (the price where the margin balance is zero) and the insurance fund benefits.
Illustrative example of an insurance contribution – Long 100x with 1 BTC collateral
(Note: The above illustration is based on opening a 100x long position at $4,000 per BTC and 1 Bitcoin of collateral. The illustration is an oversimplification and ignores factors such as fees and other adjustments.
The bid and offer prices represent the state of the order book at the time of liquidation. The closing trade price is $3,978, representing $1 of slippage compared to the $3,979 bid price at the time of liquidation.)
The second chart shows a wide bid/ask spread at the time of liquidation, here, the closing trade takes place at a lower price than the bankruptcy price, and the insurance fund is used to make sure that winning traders receive their expected profits.
This works to stabilize the potential for returns as there is no guarantee that healthy market conditions can continue, especially during periods of heightened price volatility. During these periods, it’s actually possible that the insurance fund can be used up than it is built up.
Illustrative example of an insurance depletion – Long 100x with 1 BTC collateral
(Notes: The above illustration is based on opening a 100x long position at $4,000 per BTC and 1 Bitcoin of collateral. The illustration is an oversimplification and ignores factors such as fees and other adjustments.
The bid and offer prices represent the state of the order book at the time of liquidation. The closing trade price is $3,800, representing $20 of slippage compared to the $3,820 bid price at the time of liquidation.)
The exchange declared in February 2019, that the BitMEX insurance fund retained close to 21,000 Bitcoin (around $70 million based on Bitcoin spot prices at the time).
This figure represents just 0.007% of BitMEX’s notional annual trading volume, which has been quoted as being approximately $1 trillion. This is higher than the insurance funds as a proportion of trading volume of the CME, and therefore, winning traders on BitMEX are exposed to much larger risks than CME traders as:
  • BitMEX does not have clearing members with large balance sheets and traders are directly exposed to each other.
  • BitMEX does not demand payments from traders with negative account balances.
  • The underlying instruments on BitMEX are more volatile than the more traditional instruments available on CME.
Therefore, with the insurance fund remaining capitalized, the system effectively with participants who get liquidated paying for liquidations, or a losers pay for losers mechanism.
This system may appear controversial as first, though some may argue that there is a degree of uniformity to it. It’s also worth noting that the exchange also makes use of Auto Deleveraging which means that on occasion, leveraged positions in profit can still be reduced during certain time periods if a liquidated order cannot be executed in the market.
More adventurous traders should note that while the insurance fund holds 21,000 Bitcoin, worth approximately 0.1% of the total Bitcoin supply, BitMEX still doesn’t offer the same level of guarantees to winning traders that are provided by more traditional leveraged trading platforms.
Given the inherent volatility of the cryptocurrency market, there remains some possibility that the fund gets drained down to zero despite its current size. This may result in more successful traders lacking confidence in the platform and choosing to limit their exposure in the event of BitMEX being unable to compensate winning traders.

How suitable is BitMEX for Beginners?

BitMEX generates high Bitcoin trading levels, and also attracts good levels of volume across other crypto-to-crypto transfers. This helps to maintain a buzz around the exchange, and BitMEX also employs relatively low trading fees, and is available round the world (except to US inhabitants).
This helps to attract the attention of people new to the process of trading on leverage and when getting started on the platform there are 5 main navigation Tabs to get used to:
  • **Trade:**The trading dashboard of BitMEX. This tab allows you to select your preferred trading instrument, and choose leverage, as well as place and cancel orders. You can also see your position information and view key information in the contract details.
  • **Account:**Here, all your account information is displayed including available Bitcoin margin balances, deposits and withdrawals, and trade history.
  • **Contracts:**This tab covers further instrument information including funding history, contract sizes; leverage offered expiry, underlying reference Price Index data, and other key features.
  • **References:**This resource centre allows you to learn about futures, perpetual contracts, position marking, and liquidation.
  • **API:**From here you can set up an API connection with BitMEX, and utilize the REST API and WebSocket API.
BitMEX also employs 24/7 customer support and the team can also be contacted on their Twitter and Reddit accounts.
In addition, BitMEX provides a variety of educational resources including an FAQ section, Futures guides, Perpetual Contracts guides, and further resources in the “References” account tab.
For users looking for more in depth analysis, the BitMEX blog produces high level descriptions of a number of subjects and has garnered a good reputation among the cryptocurrency community.
Most importantly, the exchange also maintains a testnet platform, built on top of testnet Bitcoin, which allows anyone to try out programs and strategies before moving on to the live exchange.
This is crucial as despite the wealth of resources available, BitMEX is not really suitable for beginners, and margin trading, futures contracts and swaps are best left to experienced, professional or institutional traders.
Margin trading and choosing to engage in leveraged activity are risky processes and even more advanced traders can describe the process as a high risk and high reward “game”. New entrants to the sector should spend a considerable amount of time learning about margin trading and testing out strategies before considering whether to open a live account.

Is BitMEX Safe?

BitMEX is widely considered to have strong levels of security. The platform uses multi-signature deposits and withdrawal schemes which can only be used by BitMEX partners. BitMEX also utilises Amazon Web Services to protect the servers with text messages and two-factor authentication, as well as hardware tokens.
BitMEX also has a system for risk checks, which requires that the sum of all account holdings on the website must be zero. If it’s not, all trading is immediately halted. As noted previously, withdrawals are all individually hand-checked by employees, and private keys are never stored in the cloud. Deposit addresses are externally verified to make sure that they contain matching keys. If they do not, there is an immediate system shutdown.
In addition, the BitMEX trading platform is written in kdb+, a database and toolset popular amongst major banks in high frequency trading applications. The BitMEX engine appears to be faster and more reliable than some of its competitors, such as Poloniex and Bittrex.
They have email notifications, and PGP encryption is used for all communication.
The exchange hasn’t been hacked in the past.

How Secure is the platform?

As previously mentioned, BitMEX is considered to be a safe exchange and incorporates a number of security protocols that are becoming standard among the sector’s leading exchanges. In addition to making use of Amazon Web Services’ cloud security, all the exchange’s systems can only be accessed after passing through multiple forms of authentication, and individual systems are only able to communicate with each other across approved and monitored channels.
Communication is also further secured as the exchange provides optional PGP encryption for all automated emails, and users can insert their PGP public key into the form inside their accounts.
Once set up, BitMEX will encrypt and sign all the automated emails sent by you or to your account by the [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) email address. Users can also initiate secure conversations with the support team by using the email address and public key on the Technical Contact, and the team have made their automated system’s PGP key available for verification in their Security Section.
The platform’s trading engine is written in kdb+, a database and toolset used by leading financial institutions in high-frequency trading applications, and the speed and reliability of the engine is also used to perform a full risk check after every order placement, trade, settlement, deposit, and withdrawal.
All accounts in the system must consistently sum to zero, and if this does not happen then trading on the platform is immediately halted for all users.
With regards to wallet security, BitMEX makes use of a multisignature deposit and withdrawal scheme, and all exchange addresses are multisignature by default with all storage being kept offline. Private keys are not stored on any cloud servers and deep cold storage is used for the majority of funds.
Furthermore, all deposit addresses sent by the BitMEX system are verified by an external service that works to ensure that they contain the keys controlled by the founders, and in the event that the public keys differ, the system is immediately shut down and trading halted. The exchange’s security practices also see that every withdrawal is audited by hand by a minimum of two employees before being sent out.

BitMEX Customer Support

The trading platform has a 24/7 support on multiple channels, including email, ticket systems and social media. The typical response time from the customer support team is about one hour, and feedback on the customer support generally suggest that the customer service responses are helpful and are not restricted to automated responses.
The BitMEX also offers a knowledge base and FAQs which, although they are not necessarily always helpful, may assist and direct users towards the necessary channels to obtain assistance.
BitMEX also offers trading guides which can be accessed here


There would appear to be few complaints online about BitMEX, with most issues relating to technical matters or about the complexities of using the website. Older complaints also appeared to include issues relating to low liquidity, but this no longer appears to be an issue.
BitMEX is clearly not a platform that is not intended for the amateur investor. The interface is complex and therefore it can be very difficult for users to get used to the platform and to even navigate the website.
However, the platform does provide a wide range of tools and once users have experience of the platform they will appreciate the wide range of information that the platform provides.
Visit BitMEX
submitted by bitmex_register to u/bitmex_register [link] [comments]

Are binary options a scam? Can you make any money on them?

I came across another one of those videos on a web site promising BIG MONEY with their FREE SOFTWARE that make AUTOMATIC TRADES blah blah blah. I listened and it took me to a site called bee After researching a bit I discovered it was binary options trading. I know jack shit about this but Forbes says it is basically gambling, unregulated and very risky. Most other places said about the same thing but a few were touting big success stories and big gains. Im not looking for a get rich overnight fix but I am interested in anything that can potentially make money. Does anyone have any real world experience with this site or binary options in general? Thanks!!
submitted by TheTravisaurusRex to stocks [link] [comments]

FYI: Penile-Preserving, Laproscopic Peritoneal-Pullthrough GCS with Dr. Heidi Wittenberg in a month-ish

(obviously, throwaway. But I like the username so much I might use it more.)


I'll be having "Penile-Preserving, Laproscopic Peritoneal-Pullthrough GCS" at MozaicCare, with Dr. Heidi Wittenberg, in around a month. Yep folks, the peritoneal hype train just keeps coming!
The peritoneal tissue will be used for the vaginal canal, and the scrotal tissue for the rest. My penis stays as it is. It's 1-stage surgery but a labia revision afterward is on the table.
This post is 0) giving back to yall, because figuring out this stuff all really sucks without this sub & HiddenStill, 1) to encourage me to discuss post-op stuff afterwards, and 2) to answer questions and address alot of nonsense to be found online about PPT. Because, goddamn, the amount of uninformed "information" flying around about PPT is pretty bad.

Why am I doing this specific surgery?

Why "Penile-Preserving"?

Before I heard that non-binary transfemme GCS was possible, I was pretty ambivalent about it. Of course, I'd much rather have been born with the traditional female parts, but after my orchiectomy last year, I didn't feel like it was worth going further with current GCS tech. I did/do have bottom dysphoria, but it was about not having a vagina, not about having a penis.
Hearing about non-binary transfemme GCS was mind-blowing, frankly. It was all of what I wanted. I am transitioning to binary female (albeit gender nonconforming), but I have my reasons:

Why "Laproscopic Peritoneal-Pullthrough" (PPT)?

This is the part that gets everyone's panties in a bunch.
Addressing the Confusion
There's been alot of noise about Dr. Ting & PPT, as well as some other people. It seems like, with most surgeons, the problem they have with PPT is the laproscopic part. A surgeon needs the training & equipment to use a special robot to go through your belly-button and do crazy stuff in there. Since GCS traditionally isn't done with robots, lots of surgeons don't have that experience/training. Also, there are different types/extents of PPT - as the surgeon for specifics.
As to the "surgeons don't recommend it because there's problems with PPT": hopefully you've read all about how PPT has been used successfully throughout the last few decades for cis women who needed work done down there. PPT is proven tech, just not-so-much for GCS. However! There's not alot of long-term data on PPT, whether for cis or trans people.
As to the "Dr. Ting/etc. stopped doing it": they actually haven't, AFAIK. Ask them yourself if you want a better answer :~).
All that said, it is new-ish tech for GCS, but I feel confident. I've talked with a past patient of Dr. Wittenberg's that had my same surgery, and things checked out. Also watch (Dr. Wittenberg talks about PPT). Basically, she has a uniquely useful background to perform PPT GCS.
Pros & Cons for PPT GCS (with Dr. Wittenberg)
So is PPT better or worse than the other methods?!
It all boils down to this.
I've been in the same boat as alot of you - obsessively researching and calculating esoteric Transgender Maths™ to determine what's best and yadahyadahyadah.
If you're keeping your penis, then yes, I'm pretty confident that PPT GCS (with Dr. Wittenberg) is the best one else is even advertising non-binary surgery, let alone PPT. I'm guessing she has the most experience by a wide margin.
If you're not keeping your penis: I dunno, sorry. The big tradeoff seems to be secreting (good) vs. not penile-sensate (bad). However, I know some people (Dr. Ting?) just use PPT for a part of the canal, and used the good 'ole penis/scrotal tissue for the rest. I'd guess that would be the best of both worlds.
Soapbox time about PPT & its reception in the community
Alot of people don't want to admit that newer GCS tech could be (unilaterally) better than the stuff people were doing decades ago, because they've had the old surgeries done and don't want to feel that they're "missing out" on new stuff. Some of these people spread misinformation in an attempt to get affirmation that they aren't, actually, missing out on anything.
It's just simple insecurity, which is endemic in the trans* community, because transphobia & such. With the anonymity of reddit, this misinformation can spread as easily as the truth if one is relying only on the testimony of random users. Please, refer to more reliable sources, including: official surgeon stuff, actual pictures, verified testimony, academic work, and even common sense. Or at least explore a user's history - there's a few usernames who obviously have a bone to pick.
Older techniques have their place, but the recent proliferation of trans* awareness & respectability means that the surgery tech is getting better. PPT is part of this evolution, but I bet I'll have an outdated vagina in as soon as half a decade. This can't be such a big deal to people. Progress in this area will happen for the foreseeable future, and us outdated-vaginas shouldn't be insecure about it.
We all need to chill and not let insecurity or regret get in the way of providing accurate & useful advice to pre-op people.

Why did I choose Dr. Wittenberg?

  1. She does the surgery I want, unlike 99% (100%?) of other GCS surgeons
  2. She's covered by insurance somehow (I swear, all my luck in my life was used up for this)
  3. Her aesthetics are as good as any collection of GCS results I've seen. Fair warning, I've dated enough to be able to spot differences pretty easily, but I'm fine with that for me because, dudes, I'm keeping my penis.
  4. The in-person consultation was good. I've had bad consults, so this actually means something.

Surgery logistics & details (paraphrased from the materials given to me)

Finances, location, pre- & post-op appointments

Pre-op preparation, medications

Recovery & dilation

Important stuff to considebring

EDIT: woah, yall. This (relatively) blew up. Good to know it's useful.
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What are Binary Options Robots, and is it a Scam? - YouTube Binary Options Strategy - Bull Call Spreads. A Cheaper Way to Be Long Options Beat the Binaries Trading & Betting Strategy Revealed ... Binary Options - The Best Binary Options Trading Guide For ... The Best Binary Options Trading Strategy - Here's how I ... IG Index Spread Betting Vs Binary Options How to do Binary Options Brokers make money? Binary Trading, by John Piper 1 minute binary option strategy moving averages - YouTube IG Index Spread Betting Vs Binary Options - invest binary

Spread Betting and Binary Options Spread Betting. The UK has a long tradition of betting, and winnings are tax-free. The US does not have the same regulations, which is why spread betting is not found in America. Financial spread betting came about in England in the 1970s when a sports bookmaker started taking bets on the direction of market indices. You can place a bet on the FTSE index for ... What is Binary Betting, how does it work and what are its advantage and disadvantages to the Spread Better. This guide offers an explanation. This guide offers an explanation. Binary Betting was developed by the Spread betting firms and is another way of speculating on the markets, and like spread betting the profits are also tax-free. Profitable binary options trading and spread betting isn’t just about making correct predictions on price movements. It also involves understanding the relationship between risk and reward and the importance of properly managing your capital. First, it should be clear that there is a significant degree of risk involved with both forms of trading. The opportunity to make 70%, 80%, or even 100 ... Binary Betting and Options Trading. Serious traders and professional investment institutions alike are almost perpetually on the lookout for new methods of trading, and new investment tools that add flexibility to their portfolio. With the rise in online brokers and the increasing popularity of spread betting and other ‘out-of-the-box’ trading vehicles amongst consumer investors, a variety ... The Binary Options “Betting Public” Now let’s compare that to the typical behavior of the average casual binary options trader: Just as the typical member of the sports betting public tends to wager on “favorites,” a casual binary options investor may choose to enter into a particular investment because they heard it was the smart thing to do. In much the same way as traditional financial spread betting, a binary bet has a continuous two-way price quoted (Bid and Offer) and your stake is in £'s per point. However, the prices are not based upon the underlying price of the instrument, but upon the likelihood (odds) of an event occurring and, therefore, is quoted between 0 - 100. The greater the chance of the event occurring then the ... Both binary options and financial spread betting allow you to make a prediction about an underlying financial instrument and then win or lose money based off of what happens. Let’s look at binary options first. Binary options are known as fixed options because you risk a certain set amount of money and when you win, the payoff will be fixed at a certain percentage of your wager. If you lose ...

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What are Binary Options Robots, and is it a Scam? - YouTube

Financial Spread Betting using IG Index Platform - Duration: 13 ... Difference Between Forex and Binary Options Trading - Binary Option vs Forex Trading Differences - Duration: 8:37. The Binary ... Binary Options Are Never Guaranteed To Profit 100% Of the Time. But This Strategy Sets the Bar HIGH. See inside here: Turn Simple Credit Spreads into a Mathematically Guaranteed Money Machine Peter ... Best Binary Options Brokers VS Scam Brokers - Incl. Binary Robots -- Good to know! - Duration: 11:30. The ... Need a Binary Options Trading Strategy? To get the transcript and MP3, go to: In this 1 minute binary option strategy - moving averages you will learn a simply binary options trading technique that will give a high win rate. Binary opt... binary options trading platforms Just before investing Forex the first time make sure you learn how it works. Even if you are an experienced stock trader you must learn the differences in ... Binary Robot Scam Exposed. PLEASE LIKE AND SHARE THIS VIDEO SO WE CAN DO MORE! I know... Beat the Binaries Option Trading Strategy revealed. See how simple it is to spot signals using my simple step-by-step Binary Trading Strategy. Head over to. ... Binary Options Stratagy - A Cheaper Way to Be Long Options. How to Prepare for the Future and Avoid Being Caught the Crash - Robert Kiyosaki & George Gammon - Duration: 42:38. The Rich Dad Channel ... John Piper's 'Binary Betting' is the definitive guide to getting started with binary betting. Now he has written a second book for more experienced traders that takes binary betting to a new level.