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Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part II
Firstly, thanks for the overwhelming comments and feedback. Genuinely really appreciated. I am pleased 500+ of you find it useful. If you didn't read the first post you can do so here: risk management part I. You'll need to do so in order to make sense of the topic. As ever please comment/reply below with questions or feedback and I'll do my best to get back to you. Part II
Letting stops breathe
When to change a stop
Entering and exiting winning positions
Letting stops breathe
We talked earlier about giving a position enough room to breathe so it is not stopped out in day-to-day noise. Let’s consider the chart below and imagine you had a trailing stop. It would be super painful to miss out on the wider move just because you left a stop that was too tight. Imagine being long and stopped out on a meaningless retracement ... ouch! One simple technique is simply to look at your chosen chart - let’s say daily bars. And then look at previous trends and use the measuring tool. Those generally look something like this and then you just click and drag to measure. For example if we wanted to bet on a downtrend on the chart above we might look at the biggest retracement on the previous uptrend. That max drawdown was about 100 pips or just under 1%. So you’d want your stop to be able to withstand at least that. If market conditions have changed - for example if CVIX has risen - and daily ranges are now higher you should incorporate that. If you know a big event is coming up you might think about that, too. The human brain is a remarkable tool and the power of the eye-ball method is not to be dismissed. This is how most discretionary traders do it. There are also more analytical approaches. Some look at the Average True Range (ATR). This attempts to capture the volatility of a pair, typically averaged over a number of sessions. It looks at three separate measures and takes the largest reading. Think of this as a moving average of how much a pair moves. For example, below shows the daily move in EURUSD was around 60 pips before spiking to 140 pips in March. Conditions were clearly far more volatile in March. Accordingly, you would need to leave your stop further away in March and take a correspondingly smaller position size. ATR is available on pretty much all charting systems Professional traders tend to use standard deviation as a measure of volatility instead of ATR. There are advantages and disadvantages to both. Averages are useful but can be misleading when regimes switch (see above chart). Once you have chosen a measure of volatility, stop distance can then be back-tested and optimised. For example does 2x ATR work best or 5x ATR for a given style and time horizon? Discretionary traders may still eye-ball the ATR or standard deviation to get a feeling for how it has changed over time and what ‘normal’ feels like for a chosen study period - daily, weekly, monthly etc.
Reasons to change a stop
As a general rule you should be disciplined and not change your stops. Remember - losers average losers. This is really hard at first and we’re going to look at that in more detail later. There are some good reasons to modify stops but they are rare. One reason is if another risk management process demands you stop trading and close positions. We’ll look at this later. In that case just close out your positions at market and take the loss/gains as they are. Another is event risk. If you have some big upcoming data like Non Farm Payrolls that you know can move the market +/- 150 pips and you have no edge going into the release then many traders will take off or scale down their positions. They’ll go back into the positions when the data is out and the market has quietened down after fifteen minutes or so. This is a matter of some debate - many traders consider it a coin toss and argue you win some and lose some and it all averages out. Trailing stops can also be used to ‘lock in’ profits. We looked at those before. As the trade moves in your favour (say up if you are long) the stop loss ratchets with it. This means you may well end up ‘stopping out’ at a profit - as per the below example. The mighty trailing stop loss order It is perfectly reasonable to have your stop loss move in the direction of PNL. This is not exposing you to more risk than you originally were comfortable with. It is taking less and less risk as the trade moves in your favour. Trend-followers in particular love trailing stops. One final question traders ask is what they should do if they get stopped out but still like the trade. Should they try the same trade again a day later for the same reasons? Nope. Look for a different trade rather than getting emotionally wed to the original idea. Let’s say a particular stock looked cheap based on valuation metrics yesterday, you bought, it went down and you got stopped out. Well, it is going to look even better on those same metrics today. Maybe the market just doesn’t respect value at the moment and is driven by momentum. Wait it out. Otherwise, why even have a stop in the first place?
Entering and exiting winning positions
Take profits are the opposite of stop losses. They are also resting orders, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price. Imagine I’m long EURUSD at 1.1250. If it hits a previous high of 1.1400 (150 pips higher) I will leave a sell order to take profit and close the position. The rookie mistake on take profits is to take profit too early. One should start from the assumption that you will win on no more than half of your trades. Therefore you will need to ensure that you win more on the ones that work than you lose on those that don’t. Sad to say but incredibly common: retail traders often take profits way too early This is going to be the exact opposite of what your emotions want you to do. We are going to look at that in the Psychology of Trading chapter. Remember: let winners run. Just like stops you need to know in advance the level where you will close out at a profit. Then let the trade happen. Don’t override yourself and let emotions force you to take a small profit. A classic mistake to avoid. The trader puts on a trade and it almost stops out before rebounding. As soon as it is slightly in the money they spook and cut out, instead of letting it run to their original take profit. Do not do this.
Entering positions with limit orders
That covers exiting a position but how about getting into one? Take profits can also be left speculatively to enter a position. Sometimes referred to as “bids” (buy orders) or “offers” (sell orders). Imagine the price is 1.1250 and the recent low is 1.1205. You might wish to leave a bid around 1.2010 to enter a long position, if the market reaches that price. This way you don’t need to sit at the computer and wait. Again, typically traders will use tech analysis to identify attractive levels. Again - other traders will cluster with your orders. Just like the stop loss we need to bake that in. So this time if we know everyone is going to buy around the recent low of 1.1205 we might leave the take profit bit a little bit above there at 1.1210 to ensure it gets done. Sure it costs 5 more pips but how mad would you be if the low was 1.1207 and then it rallied a hundred points and you didn’t have the trade on?! There are two more methods that traders often use for entering a position. Scaling in is one such technique. Let’s imagine that you think we are in a long-term bulltrend for AUDUSD but experiencing a brief retracement. You want to take a total position of 500,000 AUD and don’t have a strong view on the current price action. You might therefore leave a series of five bids of 100,000. As the price moves lower each one gets hit. The nice thing about scaling in is it reduces pressure on you to pick the perfect level. Of course the risk is that not all your orders get hit before the price moves higher and you have to trade at-market. Pyramiding is the second technique. Pyramiding is for take profits what a trailing stop loss is to regular stops. It is especially common for momentum traders. Pyramiding into a position means buying more as it goes in your favour Again let’s imagine we’re bullish AUDUSD and want to take a position of 500,000 AUD. Here we add 100,000 when our first signal is reached. Then we add subsequent clips of 100,000 when the trade moves in our favour. We are waiting for confirmation that the move is correct. Obviously this is quite nice as we humans love trading when it goes in our direction. However, the drawback is obvious: we haven’t had the full amount of risk on from the start of the trend. You can see the attractions and drawbacks of both approaches. It is best to experiment and choose techniques that work for your own personal psychology as these will be the easiest for you to stick with and build a disciplined process around.
Risk:reward and win ratios
Be extremely skeptical of people who claim to win on 80% of trades. Most traders will win on roughly 50% of trades and lose on 50% of trades. This is why risk management is so important! Once you start keeping a trading journal you’ll be able to see how the win/loss ratio looks for you. Until then, assume you’re typical and that every other trade will lose money. If that is the case then you need to be sure you make more on the wins than you lose on the losses. You can see the effect of this below. A combination of win % and risk:reward ratio determine if you are profitable A typical rule of thumb is that a ratio of 1:3 works well for most traders. That is, if you are prepared to risk 100 pips on your stop you should be setting a take profit at a level that would return you 300 pips. One needn’t be religious about these numbers - 11 pips and 28 pips would be perfectly fine - but they are a guideline. Again - you should still use technical analysis to find meaningful chart levels for both the stop and take profit. Don’t just blindly take your stop distance and do 3x the pips on the other side as your take profit. Use the ratio to set approximate targets and then look for a relevant resistance or support level in that kind of region.
Not all returns are equal. Suppose you are examining the track record of two traders. Now, both have produced a return of 14% over the year. Not bad! The first trader, however, made hundreds of small bets throughout the year and his cumulative PNL looked like the left image below. The second trader made just one bet — he sold CADJPY at the start of the year — and his PNL looked like the right image below with lots of large drawdowns and volatility. Would you rather have the first trading record or the second? If you were investing money and betting on who would do well next year which would you choose? Of course all sensible people would choose the first trader. Yet if you look only at returns one cannot distinguish between the two. Both are up 14% at that point in time. This is where the Sharpe ratio helps . A high Sharpe ratio indicates that a portfolio has better risk-adjusted performance. One cannot sensibly compare returns without considering the risk taken to earn that return. If I can earn 80% of the return of another investor at only 50% of the risk then a rational investor should simply leverage me at 2x and enjoy 160% of the return at the same level of risk. This is very important in the context of Execution Advisor algorithms (EAs) that are popular in the retail community. You must evaluate historic performance by its risk-adjusted return — not just the nominal return. Incidentally look at the Sharpe ratio of ones that have been live for a year or more ... Otherwise an EA developer could produce two EAs: the first simply buys at 1000:1 leverage on January 1st ; and the second sells in the same manner. At the end of the year, one of them will be discarded and the other will look incredible. Its risk-adjusted return, however, would be abysmal and the odds of repeated success are similarly poor.
The Sharpe ratio works like this:
It takes the average returns of your strategy;
It deducts from these the risk-free rate of return i.e. the rate anyone could have got by investing in US government bonds with very little risk;
It then divides this total return by its own volatility - the more smooth the return the higher and better the Sharpe, the more volatile the lower and worse the Sharpe.
For example, say the return last year was 15% with a volatility of 10% and US bonds are trading at 2%. That gives (15-2)/10 or a Sharpe ratio of 1.3. As a rule of thumb a Sharpe ratio of above 0.5 would be considered decent for a discretionary retail trader. Above 1 is excellent. You don’t really need to know how to calculate Sharpe ratios. Good trading software will do this for you. It will either be available in the system by default or you can add a plug-in.
VAR is another useful measure to help with drawdowns. It stands for Value at Risk. Normally people will use 99% VAR (conservative) or 95% VAR (aggressive). Let’s say you’re long EURUSD and using 95% VAR. The system will look at the historic movement of EURUSD. It might spit out a number of -1.2%. A 5% VAR of -1.2% tells you you should expect to lose 1.2% on 5% of days, whilst 95% of days should be better than that This means it is expected that on 5 days out of 100 (hence the 95%) the portfolio will lose 1.2% or more. This can help you manage your capital by taking appropriately sized positions. Typically you would look at VAR across your portfolio of trades rather than trade by trade. Sharpe ratios and VAR don’t give you the whole picture, though. Legendary fund manager, Howard Marks of Oaktree, notes that, while tools like VAR and Sharpe ratios are helpful and absolutely necessary, the best investors will also overlay their own judgment. Investors can calculate risk metrics like VaR and Sharpe ratios (we use them at Oaktree; they’re the best tools we have), but they shouldn’t put too much faith in them. The bottom line for me is that risk management should be the responsibility of every participant in the investment process, applying experience, judgment and knowledge of the underlying investments.Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital What he’s saying is don’t misplace your common sense. Do use these tools as they are helpful. However, you cannot fully rely on them. Both assume a normal distribution of returns. Whereas in real life you get “black swans” - events that should supposedly happen only once every thousand years but which actually seem to happen fairly often. These outlier events are often referred to as “tail risk”. Don’t make the mistake of saying “well, the model said…” - overlay what the model is telling you with your own common sense and good judgment.
Coming up in part III
Available here Squeezes and other risks Market positioning Bet correlation Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits *** Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
Trader Rookie Position Size Forex Calculator, need some feedback on a browser extension
Hey Community! I am super excited to finally have my browser extension live for anyone to download for Google Chrome and Microsoft Edge. I would love to get support and feedback on the extension! ❓Why I built the Trader Rookie Position Size Forex Calculator❓ I am dedicated to day trading and trading the foreign exchange markets. I have recently launched https://traderrookie.com to share content for aspiring daytraders and help people get started in the exciting world of trading. In the long run, I am looking to build supplementing income for my trading career. Personally I have always been frustrated with the RISK management tools available to traders, so I have developed a position size calculator that lets you calculated position sizes for any forex, commodity, or index pair. How it works: You set your entry, stop loss, and up to 3 separate take-profit targets, and the calculator calculates your risk size in lots or units based on account size and risk tolerance. The calculator's user interface synchronizes instantly across browser tabs and lets you calculate position sizes on top of a charting package like TradingView and then execute the trade with your broker in another browser window OR with desktop software like Metatrader or similar. https://preview.redd.it/m001kyth6nf51.png?width=920&format=png&auto=webp&s=f16aa3993e427eeca0a802ae5f47a7e34e3d7b1d The extension can be downloaded here: Chrome web shop:https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/trader-rookie-position-si/kcdjnmmjcnbpbjiemhcdiblekmpnbgec?hl=da&authuser=1 Edge Add-ons:https://microsoftedge.microsoft.com/addons/detail/trader-rookie-position-si/addmhmcfpoimgajbbeckdghdpoeobipc The extension features an add banner.Right now it has an add for the Extension, but I would like to promote content from my webpage like articles and other free stuff for traders. I have a long list of additional features I would love to implement in the extension in later versions, but for now I am happy to have the first version ready for my audience. If you're curious, check my page out at https://traderrookie.com
https://www.safeinvestingsites.com/minimizing-risk-in-the-forex-trading-useful-software-forex-trendy/ Why did Forex Traders fail? One of the reasons is the lack of risk management! Most people try Forex trading because they heard or read the success story of Forex Trader somewhere. He may be a relative, friend, or experienced trader. They jump into Forex trading and here they get the option of Leverage or margin. Every Forex trading account provider allows you to trade big against less balance in your account. It is good but only experienced traders can use it for profit. It gives you a bigger chance to earn money but, even bigger risk opens, as you may lose entire money in your account in just one trade!!! It is no joke. It happens to every trader because of shame he doesn’t tell others about his huge loss. There are many reasons to fail in Forex trading like over trading, trading addiction, not adapting to market conditions, trade without a proper plan, and most important unrealistic expectations. The trader expects a huge profit in a single trade and even if he is in loss, he doesn’t exit the trade by taking a minimum loss. He waits, waits, and waits until the end. The result is obvious. Huge Loss! Here comes the Forex risk management calculator to help you. There are many Forex risk management calculators in the market. You can download it from the Google play store. Using the Forex risk management calculator you get an idea about how to trade safely in the Forex market
The majority of this sub is focused on technical analysis. I regularly ridicule such "tea leaf readers" and advocate for trading based on fundamentals and economic news instead, so I figured I should take the time to write up something on how exactly you can trade economic news releases. This post is long as balls so I won't be upset if you get bored and go back to your drooping dick patterns or whatever.
How economic news is released
First, it helps to know how economic news is compiled and released. Let's take Initial Jobless Claims, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits around the United States from Sunday through Saturday. Initial in this context means the first claim for benefits made by an individual during a particular stretch of unemployment. The Initial Jobless Claims figure appears in the Department of Labor's Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report, which compiles information from all of the per-state departments that report to the DOL during the week. A typical number is between 100k and 250k and it can vary quite significantly week-to-week. The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report contains data that lags 5 days behind. For example, the Report issued on Thursday March 26th 2020 contained data about the week ending on Saturday March 21st 2020. In the days leading up to the Report, financial companies will survey economists and run complicated mathematical models to forecast the upcoming Initial Jobless Claims figure. The results of surveyed experts is called the "consensus"; specific companies, experts, and websites will also provide their own forecasts. Different companies will release different consensuses. Usually they are pretty close (within 2-3k), but for last week's record-high Initial Jobless Claims the reported consensuses varied by up to 1M! In other words, there was essentially no consensus. The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report is released each Thursday morning at exactly 8:30 AM ET. (On Thanksgiving the Report is released on Wednesday instead.) Media representatives gather at the Frances Perkins Building in Washington DC and are admitted to the "lockup" at 8:00 AM ET. In order to be admitted to the lockup you have to be a credentialed member of a media organization that has signed the DOL lockup agreement. The lockup room is small so there is a limited number of spots. No phones are allowed. Reporters bring their laptops and connect to a local network; there is a master switch on the wall that prevents/enables Internet connectivity on this network. Once the doors are closed the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report is distributed, with a heading that announces it is "embargoed" (not to be released) prior to 8:30 AM. Reporters type up their analyses of the report, including extracting key figures like Initial Jobless Claims. They load their write-ups into their companies' software, which prepares to send it out as soon as Internet is enabled. At 8:30 AM the DOL representative in the room flips the wall switch and all of the laptops are connected to the Internet, releasing their write-ups to their companies and on to their companies' partners. Many of those media companies have externally accessible APIs for distributing news. Media aggregators and squawk services (like RanSquawk and TradeTheNews) subscribe to all of these different APIs and then redistribute the key economic figures from the Report to their own subscribers within one second after Internet is enabled in the DOL lockup. Some squawk services are text-based while others are audio-based. FinancialJuice.com provides a free audio squawk service; internally they have a paid subscription to a professional squawk service and they simply read out the latest headlines to their own listeners, subsidized by ads on the site. I've been using it for 4 months now and have been pretty happy. It usually lags behind the official release times by 1-2 seconds and occasionally they verbally flub the numbers or stutter and have to repeat, but you can't beat the price! Important - I’m not affiliated with FinancialJuice and I’m not advocating that you use them over any other squawk. If you use them and they misspeak a number and you lose all your money don’t blame me. If anybody has any other free alternatives please share them!
How the news affects forex markets
Institutional forex traders subscribe to these squawk services and use custom software to consume the emerging data programmatically and then automatically initiate trades based on the perceived change to the fundamentals that the figures represent. It's important to note that every institution will have "priced in" their own forecasted figures well in advance of an actual news release. Forecasts and consensuses all come out at different times in the days leading up to a news release, so by the time the news drops everybody is really only looking for an unexpected result. You can't really know what any given institution expects the value to be, but unless someone has inside information you can pretty much assume that the market has collectively priced in the experts' consensus. When the news comes out, institutions will trade based on the difference between the actual and their forecast. Sometimes the news reflects a real change to the fundamentals with an economic effect that will change the demand for a currency, like an interest rate decision. However, in the case of the Initial Jobless Claims figure, which is a backwards-looking metric, trading is really just self-fulfilling speculation that market participants will buy dollars when unemployment is low and sell dollars when unemployment is high. Generally speaking, news that reflects a real economic shift has a bigger effect than news that only matters to speculators. Massive and extremely fast news-based trades happen within tenths of a second on the ECNs on which institutional traders are participants. Over the next few seconds the resulting price changes trickle down to retail traders. Some economic news, like Non Farm Payroll Employment, has an effect that can last minutes to hours as "slow money" follows behind on the trend created by the "fast money". Other news, like Initial Jobless Claims, has a short impact that trails off within a couple minutes and is subsequently dwarfed by the usual pseudorandom movements in the market. The bigger the difference between actual and consensus, the bigger the effect on any given currency pair. Since economic news releases generally relate to a single currency, the biggest and most easily predicted effects are seen on pairs where one currency is directly effected and the other is not affected at all. Personally I trade USD/JPY because the time difference between the US and Japan ensures that no news will be coming out of Japan at the same time that economic news is being released in the US. Before deciding to trade any particular news release you should measure the historical correlation between the release (specifically, the difference between actual and consensus) and the resulting short-term change in the currency pair. Historical data for various news releases (along with historical consensus data) is readily available. You can pay to get it exported into Excel or whatever, or you can scroll through it for free on websites like TradingEconomics.com. Let's look at two examples: Initial Jobless Claims and Non Farm Payroll Employment (NFP). I collected historical consensuses and actuals for these releases from January 2018 through the present, measured the "surprise" difference for each, and then correlated that to short-term changes in USD/JPY at the time of release using 5 second candles. I omitted any releases that occurred simultaneously as another major release. For example, occasionally the monthly Initial Jobless Claims comes out at the exact same time as the monthly Balance of Trade figure, which is a more significant economic indicator and can be expected to dwarf the effect of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report. USD/JPY correlation with Initial Jobless Claims (2018 - present) USD/JPY correlation with Non Farm Payrolls (2018 - present) The horizontal axes on these charts is the duration (in seconds) after the news release over which correlation was calculated. The vertical axis is the Pearson correlation coefficient: +1 means that the change in USD/JPY over that duration was perfectly linearly correlated to the "surprise" in the releases; -1 means that the change in USD/JPY was perfectly linearly correlated but in the opposite direction, and 0 means that there is no correlation at all. For Initial Jobless Claims you can see that for the first 30 seconds USD/JPY is strongly negatively correlated with the difference between consensus and actual jobless claims. That is, fewer-than-forecast jobless claims (fewer newly unemployed people than expected) strengthens the dollar and greater-than-forecast jobless claims (more newly unemployed people than expected) weakens the dollar. Correlation then trails off and changes to a moderate/weak positive correlation. I interpret this as algorithms "buying the dip" and vice versa, but I don't know for sure. From this chart it appears that you could profit by opening a trade for 15 seconds (duration with strongest correlation) that is long USD/JPY when Initial Jobless Claims is lower than the consensus and short USD/JPY when Initial Jobless Claims is higher than expected. The chart for Non Farm Payroll looks very different. Correlation is positive (higher-than-expected payrolls strengthen the dollar and lower-than-expected payrolls weaken the dollar) and peaks at around 45 seconds, then slowly decreases as time goes on. This implies that price changes due to NFP are quite significant relative to background noise and "stick" even as normal fluctuations pick back up. I wanted to show an example of what the USD/JPY S5 chart looks like when an "uncontested" (no other major simultaneously news release) Initial Jobless Claims and NFP drops, but unfortunately my broker's charts only go back a week. (I can pull historical data going back years through the API but to make it into a pretty chart would be a bit of work.) If anybody can get a 5-second chart of USD/JPY at March 19, 2020, UTC 12:30 and/or at February 7, 2020, UTC 13:30 let me know and I'll add it here.
So without too much effort we determined that (1) USD/JPY is strongly negatively correlated with the Initial Jobless Claims figure for the first 15 seconds after the release of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report (when no other major news is being released) and also that (2) USD/JPY is strongly positively correlated with the Non Farms Payroll figure for the first 45 seconds after the release of the Employment Situation report. Before you can assume you can profit off the news you have to backtest and consider three important parameters. Entry speed: How quickly can you realistically enter the trade? The correlation performed above was measured from the exact moment the news was released, but realistically if you've got your finger on the trigger and your ear to the squawk it will take a few seconds to hit "Buy" or "Sell" and confirm. If 90% of the price move happens in the first second you're SOL. For back-testing purposes I assume a 5 second delay. In practice I use custom software that opens a trade with one click, and I can reliably enter a trade within 2-3 seconds after the news drops, using the FinancialJuice free squawk. Minimum surprise: Should you trade every release or can you do better by only trading those with a big enough "surprise" factor? Backtesting will tell you whether being more selective is better long-term or not. Hold time: The optimal time to hold the trade is not necessarily the same as the time of maximum correlation. That's a good starting point but it's not necessarily the best number. Backtesting each possible hold time will let you find the best one. The spread: When you're only holding a position open for 30 seconds, the spread will kill you. The correlations performed above used the midpoint price, but in reality you have to buy at the ask and sell at the bid. Brokers aren't stupid and the moment volume on the ECN jumps they will widen the spread for their retail customers. The only way to determine if the news-driven price movements reliably overcome the spread is to backtest. Stops: Personally I don't use stops, neither take-profit nor stop-loss, since I'm automatically closing the trade after a fixed (and very short) amount of time. Additionally, brokers have a minimum stop distance; the profits from scalping the news are so slim that even the nearest stops they allow will generally not get triggered. I backtested trading these two news releases (since 2018), using a 5 second entry delay, real historical spreads, and no stops, cycling through different "surprise" thresholds and hold times to find the combination that returns the highest net profit. It's important to maximize net profit, not expected value per trade, so you don't over-optimize and reduce the total number of trades taken to one single profitable trade. If you want to get fancy you can set up a custom metric that combines number of trades, expected value, and drawdown into a single score to be maximized. For the Initial Jobless Claims figure I found that the best combination is to hold trades open for 25 seconds (that is, open at 5 seconds elapsed and hold until 30 seconds elapsed) and only trade when the difference between consensus and actual is 7k or higher. That leads to 30 trades taken since 2018 and an expected return of... drumroll please... -0.0093 yen per unit per trade. Yep, that's a loss of approx. $8.63 per lot. Disappointing right? That's the spread and that's why you have to backtest. Even though the release of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report has a strong correlation with movement in USD/JPY, it's simply not something that a retail trader can profit from. Let's turn to the NFP. There I found that the best combination is to hold trades open for 75 seconds (that is, open at 5 seconds elapsed and hold until 80 seconds elapsed) and trade every single NFP (no minimum "surprise" threshold). That leads to 20 trades taken since 2018 and an expected return of... drumroll please... +0.1306 yen per unit per trade. That's a profit of approx. $121.25 per lot. Not bad for 75 seconds of work! That's a +6% ROI at 50x leverage.
Make it real
If you want to do this for realsies, you need to run these numbers for all of the major economic news releases. Markit Manufacturing PMI, Factory Orders MoM, Trade Balance, PPI MoM, Export and Import Prices, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Retail Sales MoM, Industrial Production MoM, you get the idea. You keep a list of all of the releases you want to trade, when they are released, and the ideal hold time and "surprise" threshold. A few minutes before the prescribed release time you open up your broker's software, turn on your squawk, maybe jot a few notes about consensuses and model forecasts, and get your finger on the button. At the moment you hear the release you open the trade in the correct direction, hold it (without looking at the chart!) for the required amount of time, then close it and go on with your day. Some benefits of trading this way: * Most major economic releases come out at either 8:30 AM ET or 10:00 AM ET, and then you're done for the day. * It's easily backtestable. You can look back at the numbers and see exactly what to expect your return to be. * It's fun! Packing your trading into 30 seconds and knowing that institutions are moving billions of dollars around as fast as they can based on the exact same news you just read is thrilling. * You can wow your friends by saying things like "The St. Louis Fed had some interesting remarks on consumer spending in the latest Beige Book." * No crayons involved. Some downsides: * It's tricky to be fast enough without writing custom software. Some broker software is very slow and requires multiple dialog boxes before a position is opened, which won't cut it. * The profits are very slim, you're not going to impress your instagram followers to join your expensive trade copying service with your 30-second twice-weekly trades. * Any friends you might wow with your boring-ass economic talking points are themselves the most boring people in the world. I hope you enjoyed this long as fuck post and you give trading economic news a try!
Today, Let's dive in what matters 70% percent of the time in the market. That is market psychology
ABSOLUTE DISCIPLINE Only buy / sell on predetermined rules (technical or fundamental). Have a checklist to check against the conditions in the market. ONLY enter the market after irreducible minimums
FLEXIBILITY Talking about flexibility , you should have in mind that facts in the market sometimes changes and that should align well with your mind. For example never STUBBORNLY HOLD ONTO A LOSING POSITION. That is why I advocate for a fixed stop loss. You should always look forward to the amount you will be losing rather than the one you will win. Rem HOPE IS FOR THE HOPELESS IN THE MARKET, Never hold a losing position with hopes.
HARDWORK Yes, you have probably heard that Fx is an easy way of making millions out of the market. Now more than ever Forex could be the most challenging and cumbersome field. Remember there is no free lunch, you should spend timeless time studying and analyzing charts. Take your time in practicing demo so as to device your own strategy based on your personality. Remember to keep records, I personally use EDGEWonk, it is a good software. You can create a flashcard for that matter.
BE PATIENT AND THINK LONG TERM I need not to emphasize on this. But you should learn the magic of compounding.
5.THINK INDEPENDENTLY There is nothing like market gurus. No one knows where the market will go next. Market is based on random emotions of investors. The emotions are basically two; fear and greed and this random motions was well captured by wave theorists , wykloft and Elliot. Therefore most of the time it is advised that you be opposite of the masses.
RISK MANAGEMENT AND CAPITAL MANAGEMENT Always risk 1% of your account. Before you enter a trade ensure you use the position calculator tool, it is an utility tool that helps in choosing the perfect lot size.
TAKE RESPONSIBILITY AND LEARN FROM MISTAKES Never blame the market , learn from your mistakes for you to become a professional trader.
NEVER ATTEMPT TO PREDICT THE MARKET Any attempt to predict the market leads to bad performance. Just follow your rules and stick to the game plan
Guys that is all I had today . I have been trading for the past 5 yrs and I have learnt that for you to be in the market and profitable it takes your psychology. How you control your emotions. You see consistency is all that matters in this game. And with consistency comes long-term profitability. Happy 'piping' and may the market be with you . :)
u/OK-Face made a post with some questions about limits and stop orders. I started to write up a big comment but then figured I’d just create an “Orders 101” post in case other newbies might find it useful. If you don’t like massive walls of text, now is the time to leave! The very basics First you need to know a little about forex market makers. A market maker publishes two prices: the bid price (lower) and the ask price (higher). The market maker will sell you units of a currency pair at the higher ask price, and will buy units of a currency pair back from you at the lower bid price. They make money by buying units at the bid from one user and selling those units at the ask to another user, pocketing the difference. The difference between the bid and the ask is called the spread. A narrow spread is good for users. If you buy at the ask (or sell at the bid) you only need the bid (ask) to move upwards (downwards) a little bit before you can sell (buy) back to the market maker to close the position for a profit. The spread will vary over time; the market maker wants to keep it narrow to compete for customers but wide enough to ensure they make money even when the market moves unexpectedly. When the market is stable the spread will be narrow; when the market is volatile the spread will be wide. When someone refers to the price of a currency pair you can usually infer which price (the bid or the ask) they are referring to from the context. If they’re talking about going long (buying) then they are probably referencing the ask. If they are talking about going short (selling) then they are probably referencing the bid. Broker software usually allows you to plot both at the same time, which visualizes not only the prices by the spread (and thus the market maker’s measure of volatility). The “market price” or “mark” is the midpoint between the bid and ask. It’s sometimes used when charting prices, since it smoothes out changes in the spread. The details of where the bid and ask prices come from, how they differ between market makers and from inter-bank rates, and how they are related to but very different from bid/ask spreads on exchange-traded instruments like stocks are all well beyond the scope of this post. (But you should learn it eventually!) Opening and closing a position First, burn it into your brain that a long position is opened by buying from the market maker at the ask and closed by selling back to the market maker at the bid, while a short position is opened by selling to the market maker at the bid and closed by buying back from the market maker at the ask. (Really a short position is a loan from the market maker that you can satisfy with units of currency pairs bought back from them at a later time. But whatever.) When you open a new position you use one of two types of orders: a market order or a limit order. A market order tells the market maker to fill your order as soon as your order gets to the front of the queue, no matter what the price is. If it’s a market buy to go long on a pair then the order will be filled at the ask price. If it’s a market sell to go short on a pair then the order will be filled at the bid price. The time it takes your order to get to the front of the queue is usually less than a second, but the price could change pretty dramatically in that second. A market order says “I don’t care what happens to the price between now and then, just fill my order as quickly as possible.” A limit order goes through the order queue too, but when it reaches the front it tells the market maker to wait to fill your order until an acceptable (to you) price is available. If it’s a limit buy to go long on a pair then you specify the maximum ask price you are willing to pay. If it’s a limit sell to go short on a pair then you specify the minimum bid price you are willing to accept. If the price is already acceptable then the order is filled immediately just like a market order, otherwise it waits until it’s filled or canceled. When you close a position you can also choose a market order or a limit order. If you have a long position then you can either submit a market sell order or a limit sell order to sell back your units at the bid. If you have a short position then you can either submit a market buy order or a limit buy order to buy back the units you shorted at the ask. These orders work just like orders to open a position, but instead of creating a new position they cancel out your existing position. (Hopefully leaving you with a profit.) It is possible to submit offsetting orders that don’t actually cancel out one another! For example, a market maker may allow you to submit a market buy order to go long one lot of EUUSD and then separately submit a market sell order to go short one lot of EUUSD, and track those two positions separately rather than cancel them out. For this reason an order used to close out a position is sometimes clarified as “to close”, as in “market sell to close”. Most users will close positions by right-clicking the position in their broker’s GUI and click “close” (or something similar); this will automatically submit a market order (buy or sell) to close. Submitting a limit order to close may take more clicks. Conditional orders to close When you create an order you can attach conditional orders to close that are only submitted if the bid or ask price moves past a trigger price. You specify the trigger price and the type of order to be submitted when the trigger hits: market or limit. There are four possible combinations, but only three are commonly used. A conditional market order to close a losing position is called a stop-loss order. A conditional limit order to close a losing position is called a stop-limit order. A conditional market order to close a winning position doesn’t have a name and isn’t commonly used. A conditional limit order to close a winning position is called a take-profit order. Generally the trigger price is compared to the price (bid or ask) that will be used to close the position. For example, a long position is closed by selling at the bid, so the trigger price for a stop-loss on a long position will be compared to the bid. Some market makers will allow you to get fancy and decide which price your trigger is compared to, which may be useful if, for example, your strategy is entirely based on the ask price but you want to use a conditional order to close a long position without worrying about the spread. Let’s look at the three common conditional orders to close, from simplest to confusing. Stop-loss orders A stop-loss order is a conditional market order to close a losing position. The trigger price is set on the losing side of the position. When the bid/ask price passes the trigger price, a new market order is created to close the position. Like any market order, it is filled at whatever the bid/ask price is when the order makes it to the front of the queue. For a long position the trigger price is less than the original ask price at which the currency pair was bought. A long position is closed by selling at the bid, so the trigger price is usually compared to the bid. When the bid price falls down to the trigger price a new market sell (to close) order is submitted. When it reaches the front of the queue it’s filled at the current bid, offsetting the position. For a short position the trigger price is greater than the original bid price at which the currency pair was sold short. A short position is closed by buying at the ask, so the trigger price is usually compared to the ask. When the ask price rises up to the trigger price a new market buy (to close) order is submitted. When it reaches the front of the queue it’s filled at the current ask, offsetting the position. Stop-loss orders are used as a last resort: “If my losses get too big close the position as fast as possible, even if that means closing at a less advantageous price.” It’s not uncommon for the bid/ask price to shoot past the trigger price so quickly that the price at which the position closes is quite a bit worse than the trigger price. On the other hand, it’s also not uncommon for the price to just barely touch the trigger price (triggering the placement of the market order to close) and bounce back, so that the price at which the position closes is better than the target price. (This latter scenario can sometimes make people wonder why the position was closed, since it may appear that the price never reached the trigger.) Take-profit orders A take-profit order is a conditional limit order to close a winning position. The trigger price is set on the winning side of the position. When the bid/ask price passes the trigger price, a new limit order is created to close the position. Like any limit order, it is only filled when the bid/ask price is better for the customer than the specified limit price. The limit price for a take-profit order is usually the same as the trigger price. (Some market makers may allow it to be different.) For a long position the trigger (and limit) price is greater than the original ask price at which the currency pair was bought. A long position is closed by selling at the bid, so the trigger price is usually compared to the bid. When the bid price rises up to the trigger price a new limit buy (to close) order is submitted. When it reaches the front of the queue it waits until the current bid is at least equal to the limit price, then it fills and offsets the position. For a short position the trigger (and limit) price is less than the original bid price at which the currency pair was sold short. A short position is closed by buying at the ask, so the trigger price is usually compared to the ask. When the ask price falls down to the trigger price a new limit sell (to close) order is submitted. When it reaches the front of the queue it waits until the current ask is at most equal to the limit price, then it fills and offsets the position. Since the limit price is usually set equal to the trigger price, and since the bid/ask price doesn’t usually reverse within the short time while the new order (to close) moves through the queue, a take-profit order usually closes almost immediately after being triggered, at a price at or very slightly above the triggelimit price. However it is possible that the bid/ask price just touched the trigger price and immediately reverses, leaving the limit order (to close) pending on the queue until the price moves favorably again. Stop-limit orders Finally we come to the confusing one. A stop-limit order is a conditional limit order to close a losing position. The trigger price is set on the losing side of the position. When the bid/ask price passes the trigger price, a new limit order is created to close the position. Like any limit order, it is only filled when the bid/ask price is better for the customer than the specified limit price. Unlike a take-profit order, the limit price for a stop-limit order is usually not the same as the trigger price. For a long position the trigger (and limit) price is less than the original ask price at which the currency pair was bought. A long position is closed by selling at the bid, so the trigger price is usually compared to the bid. When the bid price falls down to the trigger price a new limit sell (to close) order is submitted. When it reaches the front of the queue it waits until the current bid is at least equal to the limit price, then it fills and offsets the position. For a short position the trigger (and limit) price is greater than the original bid price at which the currency pair was sold short. A short position is closed by buying at the ask, so the trigger price is usually compared to the ask. When the ask price rises up to the trigger price a new limit buy (to close) order is submitted. When it reaches the front of the queue it waits until the current ask is at most equal to the limit price, then it fills and offsets the position. On first blush this appears to be the opposite of a take-profit order, but it behaves quite differently. Take a long position for example, and consider what happens when the bid price moves quickly down past the trigger and continues to fall. The limit sell order (to close) is submitted but suppose the limit is set close to the trigger price. Since the bid is still falling it’s on the wrong side of the limit price (for the customer) so the limit order won’t fill. A stop-limit order says “If I’m losing money and the price moves to X, try to close my position, but don’t accept anything too much worse than X.” Because a rapid price movement may pass both the trigger and the limit, the limit needs to be set carefully to give a little “breathing room” for the limit in case of rapid price movement. Stop-limit orders require careful calculation of triggers and limits to fix risk, or you can end up closing a position early, too late, or not at all! Final thoughts I hope you learned something! At the very least, I hope some newbies see that setting stop-losses, stop-limits, and take-profits involves a lot more math and understanding of the mechanics of the market than thinking “this looks like a good place to limit my losses” and clicking the mouse. Corrections are highly appreciated! I intentionally glossed over a ton of details but if in doing so I omitted something important please let me know!
Forex, Cryptocurrency and stock trading are all can be a great way to make money online, but it is not easy if you do not have the right tools and knowledge. Profitable trading requires patience, planning, and practice for more than several days. There are some basic hacks that can help you find your footing in the market a bit more quickly and firmly, and we’ll list them below to help you get started.
1. Find yourself
There are so many different strategies, techniques, and methods to trade, you must choose the right one that will be fit for your distinct personality. If you’re an impatient person that is looking for fast profits, for example, consider to be a short-term trader instead of a long term one, as you may find yourself itching to close the trade before the best (or right) time. If you’re a morning person, make sure you don’t choose a strategy that will operate mostly during your night hours, as exhaustion may compromise your decision-making abilities. Think about yourself while thinking about your strategies – this self-understanding will pay off in the long run and can help you to be a better trader.
2. Use your brain not your hart
To make sure you make the right decision based on real knowledge and not on the basis of emotion, you should always check your trading history- how many winning trades do you have? How many losing trades do you have? Then you can realize that it is impossible to beat the market 100% of the time and if you took a bad trade - close it in loss, it’s way better than close it after 2-3 days with heavy loss. Think your strategy isn’t that good? Change it but also give it time, a trading strategy can’t be measured based on 1 or 2 trades, not even 5.
3. Be Liquid
One of the most common mistakes made by novice traders is the lack of liquidity. When you trade online, you must calculate the position size compare to your available balance (Total balance - Open positions). Most traders take over-size positions that put their entire account at risk, for example, execute $500 EUUSD trade when there’s $1,000 in the account meaning, 50% exposure in the first second of the trade. If the trade will go against us, we will not be able to think clearly and take another trade to recover during the day. It’s always better to use 1% - 5% of the account balance at any given time = all the open positions together.
4. Do your homework
The best time do your market research is over the weekend when the markets are closed or before your daily trading session started when you are not in a hurry or following on-going trades. Pay close attention to the news, what happened the previous week, and if anything is expected to happen in the upcoming week. If there is a very important event on the economic calendar such as interest decision with great expectations of change, important report, election or any other high-impact event - it is better to wait a few hours after it’s all over and then- continue trading.
5. Blindly Following Robots \ Automatic Trading Systems
If you find a way where you can't lose and success is guaranteed, will you share it with someone? of course not! Same with automatic trading systems that offered to the public. A computer and software can provide important information about the technical and fundamental characteristics of a specific stock, currency, or any other tradeable asset, However, many traders make the common mistake of relying too much on these tools without a full understanding of their capabilities. There is no easy money in life, no one can guarantee you profits without risk, the only solution we have is to learn how to do it properly instead of searching for shortcuts that can cause us heavy losses within a short period of time.
Forex Margin Trading : a trading system where investors can trade at USD 100,000 but only use 1% guarantee is USD 1,000 . Forex Margin Trading is a form of investment in which the relatively small margin we can transact sell or buy currencies in the world with a high rate of return . Instruments traded in the forex market is a currency pair ( pair ) such as EURUSD , GBPUSD , USDJPY , AUDCHF , GBPJPY etc . Market Participants : Central Banks , Foreign Banks , Institutions Non Bank Financial ( Brokers , Insurance Companies , Investment Manager , etc. ) , Exporters / Importers, Traders Large , Investor ( Individual / Corporate ) share buying tips : Trading Forex Trading traded with Assurance System that has a main condition as follows: 1. Transactions carried out with a two-way Open BUY - SELL Close Open SELL - BUY Close 2. The investment fund is required only for WARRANT position open trade (Open BUY or SELL Open) and if the position of the trade has been closed (Close BUY or Close SELL), and may be in withdrawal or in traded back for the next transaction. 3. The purpose of the transaction is to gain of SPREADS buying and selling by the formula calculation of profit / loss. 4. Guarantee capital to trade starting from 1 - 10% or under the rules of account opening and regulations of Stock Index Futures Trading and Forex Trading. 5. Transactions carried out in standard units LOT with MINIMUM ot or multiples thereof. 6. Online Trading Transactions performed with Traders use Metaquotes Software Version 4:00 or 5:00 TAKORADI, Ghana https://moneyonlineinvestment.com/\_/share\_buying\_tips/r346179\_Who-is-share-buying-tips/Ghana.html
Established Strategies You Can Use In Forex Trading
Both down market and up market patterns are visible, but one is more dominant. You should aim to select the trades based on the trends. Adjust your position each time you open up a new trade, based on the charts you're studying. Traders often open in the same position and spend more than they should or not a sufficient amount. Vary your position depending on the trades above you if you want to be profitable in the market. Some currency pairs have what is called an inverse relationship with another currency pair. What this means is that when one pair is trending upwards, the other trends downward (and vice-versa). The classic example is that of the EUUSD vs. the USD/CHF. This comes about because the Swiss economy is closely tied with the rest of the European economy. Additionally, there is the common factor of the US dollar in both pairs. If you are just starting out in Forex and you are still hesitant about investing your own money, sign up for a demo account with a broker that will enable you to try out your Forex investment skills. Demo accounts allow you to trade with virtual money. It is a great way for you to practice without risking any real money. You should try Forex trading without the pressure of real money. By practicing live trading under real market conditions, you can get a feel for the Forex market without using actual currency. You can also get some excellent trading advice through online tutorials. Gather as much information as you can, and practice a lot of trading with your demo account, before you move on to trading with money. It may seem like it is you against the world sometimes when it comes to dealing with Forex trading. With the vast amount of information available online, it can be nearly overwhelming at first. This article will provide much helpful information for you to get started on the right path. Begin as a Forex trader by setting attainable goals and sticking with those goals. Establishing goals, and deadlines for meeting those goals, is extremely important when you're trading in Forex. Keep in mind that the timetable you create should have room for error. If this is your first-time trading, you will probably make mistakes. Additionally, calculate a realistic amount of time that you can spend trading, and make sure to factor in time spent researching. You should pay attention to the larger time frames above the one-hour chart. Technology can even allow you to track Forex down to 15-minute intervals. The thing is that fluctuations occur all the time and it's sometimes random luck what happens. You do not need stress in your life, stay with long cycles. Be sure that you always open up in a different position based on the market. There are Forex traders who always open using the same position. They often end up committing more cash than they intended and don't have enough money. Learn to adjust your trading accordingly for any chance of success. Learning about the currency pair you choose is important. It can take a long time to learn different pairs, so don't hold up your trading education by waiting until you learn every single pair. It's better to pick a pair in which you are interested, do your research, and understand how volatile the pair is. Follow and news reports and take a look at forecasting for your currency pair. As a beginner in Forex, you will need to determine what time frames you will prefer trading in. To make plans for getting in and out of trades quickly, rely on the 15-minute and hourly charts to plan your entry and exit points. A scalper, for example, might refer to the five- and ten-minute charts to complete trades within a matter of minutes. Utilize resources at hand, such as exchange market signals, to facilitate purchases or sell-outs. Forex Robots Software allows you to set alerts that sound once the market reaches a certain rate. Figure out your exit and entry points ahead of time to avoid losing time to decision-making. Many traders make careless decisions when they start making money based upon greed and excitement. Consequently, not having enough confidence can also cause you to lose money. Work hard to maintain control of your emotions and only act once you have all of the facts - never act based on your feelings. If you are new to the trading market, you should begin your account with a small initial deposit. This minimizes your losses if you were to lose your money. Instead of depositing more money, you should try to make gains through the money that you initially invested, and then place the money into further investments. Be sure that your account has a Stop-loss in place. Stop-losses are like free insurance for your trading. If you do not set up any type of Stop-loss order, and there happens to be a large move that was not expected, you can wind up losing quite a bit of money. Your capital can be preserved with Stop-loss orders.
I've been reading a little about forex in the past couple weeks, and as a software engineer, I find it appealing that it can be conducted almost entirely via technical analysis (i.e. it's work a computer can do, unlike fundamentals). A lot of folks on here and around the web have talked about their robo-trading, so I figured one of the best ways for me to learn more would be to write an app and experiment with a test account. Before that, though, I spent ten minutes writing a simulation to test out some of my assumptions, and see if the math checks out. I'm sure most of this will be cleared up with practical experience, but I thought I'd quickly ask for a second opinion before spending days (and hundreds/thousands of lines of code) on the problem. My plan, tentatively, is to do some automated range trading during Asian hours. Looking at a couple USD/EUR charts to get a feel for how quickly things move, I plugged these values into my "simulation."
Starting capital: $10,000
Target profit ratio: 2-to-1 (e.g. target 10 pips up or 5 pips down... let winners ride, cut losses)
Simultaneous positions: 3
Expected trade duration: 90-120 minutes
Trading window: 8 hours
With three concurrent positions open and each of them lasting up to two hours, that means the sim is doing ~12 trades per 8-hour day. Targeting a 2:1 profit ratio, that means only 33% of the trades need to be correct in order to break even. If I set it to 35% it makes a tidy profit, and if I crank it up to 50% things start to get a little obscene. This is all math, but I'm better with an IDE than I am with a calculator. And of course, none of this gets into how to determine where the ranges are -- that's a problem I'll try to solve while writing the actual app. Before I start writing code... what in there looks totally out of whack? What am I not taking into account? I don't consider the numbers coming out of this shitty little mini-program worthwhile, but it was a fun little experiment, and I found myself curious whether any of it was realistic, or if it needed to be significantly reconfigured. Thanks for any advice.
08-14 03:22 - 'i've got nothing else better to do, i'm wicked smart, i've learned the fundamentals of forex and technical analysis, and i've been researching how other bots do it. / I think its worth a try, and i'm willing to gamble $100 ove...' by /u/btcnoob69 removed from /r/Bitcoin within 4-14min
''' i've got nothing else better to do, i'm wicked smart, i've learned the fundamentals of forex and technical analysis, and i've been researching how other bots do it. I think its worth a try, and i'm willing to gamble $100 over and over repeatedly until I find an algorithm/group of them that works consistently and generates a small profit. as far as stop loss orders, covering my ass was the first thing I researched... ive got an app pulling in pricing data for bitmex, kraken, poloniex and bitfinex into a sql database and I have code that will generate simple moving averages from the data just like the charts on tradingview. I have code that will give me awesome oscillator values from the data which also match up perfectly with the charts. I am working on calculating upper and lower limits of bollinger bands as well as relative strength index (RSI). Rsi seems pretty useless but bollinger band values, awesome oscillator values and 9/21 period simple moving averages seem to indicate reversals with striking regularity and with good accuracy. Since I am receiving data from 4 different exchanges in real time (every 6 seconds), I can average them out and get a true market consensus from the last 6, 12, 24 seconds, whatever and eliminate one-off spikes in prices and get a nice smooth average of the 4 exchanges. the results will be weighted according to volume with the biggest exchanges (bitfinex, bitmex) being more important than the puny ones (kraken) because it makes sense the largest ones are the ones who move the market and the little ones follow along. as I write more code I can plug in more exchanges and get even higher quality data in real time and really have my finger on btc's pulse. i'm pretty close to putting it all together into an autonomous system that trades by itself. once that is done I will start working on arbitrage and integrate it into the software so I can run bots on all the exchanges and make lightening fast deals using price differentials. Ill probably get rekt the first few tries but ive got lots of ideas about different models from simple to complex to try. i'm also stubborn and persistent so eventually I'll get there. Don't worry about me, this is just a hobby, I already have all the money I need to live on. But if I can get it to work, it will be even better. ''' Context Link Go1dfish undelete link unreddit undelete link Author: btcnoob69
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Binary option trading is a relatively new development in the retail trading world. Five years ago, no one had even heard of it. Since 2012 however, the popularity of binary options surged as a result of aggressive marketing by binary option brokers, and the promotion of binary trading software by the trading "gurus". Right now, interest on the topic continues to grow at record levels. Given its current popularity, binary options are likely to be the first "asset" that beginners start trading with. However, just because something is new and popular... doesn't mean it's worth doing. (Who remembers the fuss over bitcoin trading?) Opportunities come and go all the time in the retail trading space... and it's important for us to tell the difference between sustainable business models and short-lived fads. So let's take a moment to examine binary options, and see if it's something we should be paying attention to. But before we do that, let's first take a quick look at traditional (i.e. vanilla) option contracts. VANILLA FOREX OPTIONS Traditional option contracts were initially introduced for people to hedge against future uncertainty. For example, a German company selling cars in the United States would worry about high EUUSD exchange rates in the future. Why? Because then they would be getting revenue in a weaker currency (USD) while having to pay expenses in a stronger currency (Euro) in their home country. This results in a significantly lower net profit, or even worse, a net loss. Forex option contracts were thus introduced to solve this problem, as any losses stemming from currency fluctuations could be offset by profits made from buying options contracts. To continue with the example, the German car company may choose to buy EUUSD call options, which would profit from an increasing EUUSD rate. Thus, any operational losses in the future (due to a high EUUSD rate) can be offset by the profits gained from those option contracts. This is, and continues to be, the main purpose of Forex option contracts. Now of course, in order for the German company to buy call options, someone has to be willing to sell it to them. Perhaps, a financial institution in France does not believe that the EUUSD will continue to strengthen over the next 12 months, and so is willing sell call options to the German company. (This, by the way, is how financial markets work. Participants have varying views of the future, and so trade against each other in line with their own expectations.) In this transaction, the German company pays a fee (in buying call options) to protect against future currency risk, while the financial institution gets paid to take on that risk. To summarize:
- The German car company looks to limit future currency risk by buying call options - The financial institution (or speculator) collects a fee from selling call options and assumes the currency risk
- Option buyers pay a fixed fee for the potential of a very large profit - Option sellers collect a fixed fee for the potential of a very large loss
FOREX BINARY OPTIONS In a vanilla option trade, the buyer does not know in advance the amount of money he stands to win. Similarly, the seller does not know in advance the amount of money he stands to lose. The amount is ultimately determined by how far the market price moves. In a binary option trade however, the trader will know in advance the exact amount he stands to win or lose, before taking the trade. Binary options are named as such because there are exactly only two possible outcomes: you either win a fixed amount, or lose a fixed amount. Binary options ask a simple question: will the price be above [price level] at [time]? For example: will the EUUSD be above 1.3000 at 4.30pm? If you think so, you buy the binary option. If you don't, you sell. That's pretty much all there is to binary options. UPSIDE OF BINARY OPTIONS As you can see, binary option trading can be simply explained and is easily understood. This is a big benefit to new traders, as they can quickly learn the basic mechanics and start trading right away. A related benefit of this, is having to make fewer trading decisions. In spot forex trading, for example, one has to decide:
- Where and when to enter the market - The appropriate trading lot size to use - How to manage the trade - Where and when to close the trade
In binary option trading however, there are only 2 decisions to make:
- Whether the market price will be above a certain price level at a certain time - How much to risk on the trade
As such, binary options offer a much simpler trading process. You don’t have to think about (or calculate) leverage and margin at all. And, since the potential loss on each trade is fixed, you will never get a margin call. Lastly, options offer traders the unique ability to make money by predicting where prices will NOT go. (This goes for all types of options, not just binary options.) This can’t be done in the spot Forex market. So… does binary option trading sound good? Sure it does! Well... at first glance, anyway. Now let’s take a look at the downsides of binary option trading. These are the things your binary option broker won’t tell you. DOWNSIDE OF BINARY OPTIONS TRADING The most obvious downside of binary option trading is the lack of flexibility. For example, if the market price moves even one pip against you upon option expiry, you’ll lose your entire stake. You can’t choose to defer your trade exit under any circumstances. Also, with some binary option brokers, you can’t change your mind and close or modify a trade before expiry. In this sense, a binary option trade is typically an all-or-nothing proposition. These points on inflexibility can be summarized by the following comment (found in the Forex Factory forums): "I once traded a forex news item where I closed a wrong call with a 20 pips loss, and ended up making 350 pips on the reverse trade, giving me a net profit of 330 pips. This scenario cannot be replicated in binary options.” Lastly, the value of a binary option is fixed between 0 and 100, with the broker charging a bid-ask spread and often, a commission as well. The implication of these factors is that the average loss per trade will always be larger than the average profit. This is a structural (i.e. inherent) characteristic of the binary option game. Thus, in order to break even, a binary option trader would have to win at least 55% of the time. Compare this to spot Forex trading, where a trader can be profitable by winning just 40% (or less) of the time. MY PERSONAL OPINION On paper, binary options are an opportunity seeker’s wet dream. The promise of regular fixed payouts and a focus on short-term profits are exactly the characteristics that appeal to people looking for a quick buck. Unfortunately for them, what feels good in trading is typically a losing approach. You see... the only way to keep making money with binary options is to accurately predict market prices at least 55% of the time, AND get the timing right. This is an exceptionally difficult feat to accomplish. In other words, you can correctly predict future market prices AND STILL LOSE because you got the timing wrong by a few minutes. HOWEVER All this said, there may be a genuine opportunity here… and that is to be a seller of binary options. Why? Because it’s a lot easier to estimate where prices will 'not go', rather than trying to predict where it will. Whenever the market settles at a particular price level, it is not settling at a dozen other price levels. Does this make sense? This root concept may then be expanded to form a complete binary option trading strategy that you can use. Note however, that this is a benefit available to all types of options, not just binary options. SO, ARE BINARY OPTIONS JUST A FAD? One reservation I have about binary options is that they do not serve a major commercial purpose. Unlike the spot and derivatives markets that serve to benefit society, binary options exist solely for speculation purposes. In other words, it can be reasonably argued that binary option trading is not much different than a casino game. Without a commercial purpose, binary options could be banned tomorrow and not impact anyone else other than the brokers and speculators. Compare this to spot Forex trading, or Forex futures trading, upon which global commerce relies. These markets are unlikely to be closed or banned, because they serve a useful purpose beyond speculation. As a retail trader for the past 10 years, I’ve seen all sorts of gimmicks and fads come and go. Some years ago, expert advisors were the hot topic. Slowly but surely, people are now gradually realizing that "automated trading" isn't as amazing as it's cracked up to be. Will binary options follow suit? My opinion is yes, I think they will. Binary options do not provide any major benefit to serious traders, and I think that once the opportunity seekers get bored or lose enough money, they’ll lose interest and turn their attention to the next shiny object. WHAT DO YOU THINK? So... do you particularly agree or disagree with any of the points I’ve mentioned? Did I miss mentioning any important points? Let me know what you think! The original article is published here
Hidden Scalping Code Download Making $4,000 $7,000 $9,000 everyday
How Does Hidden Scalping Code Works? Hidden Scalping Code is the proven and authentic scalping indicator that could realistically change your life. This program helps you to choose between three different trading styles. This software is depending on how you prefer to trade, you can choose Aggressive, Medium or Safe trading style. You can simply open it again and continue from where you left off without having any signals disappear or change. This program is the result of years of trading experience with trial and error and a lot of sleepless nights. It relies on a super smart revolutionary mathematical algorithm to predict the price movements before they even happen. It doesn’t matter whether you have trading experience or not. All of the difficult calculations are done automatically inside the code – just buy or sell when it tells you. This is all you need to know to use this software. This scalping indicator can be used on M1 and M5. It combines a lot of the most profitable trading systems with numerous trading algorithms and powerful scalping tricks that make you a ton of winning trades. VISIT HIDDEN SCALPING CODE OFFICIAL WEBSITE now we understand the most significant aspects of Currency Forex Robotic; it is a mainly grid hedge trading robot, functioning 24/5, uses the M30 timeframe and the pairs additionally working yet not officially supported are AUDJPY, GBPJPY, CHFJPY and EURJPY. We see plenty of trading pairs here, is it possible? They started guide is somewhat not much information but their member area does absolutely fill this gap. I see a lot of stuff in there included extra downloads, extra tutorials and updated set files frequently as they promise. In addition, as you’ll see, they provide 4 extra daily trading signals on the EA official website. I don’t use the forecasting signals so cannot have any comments about the signals. More couple of realities relating to this EA should be known, I will attempt to list them immediately. It is most likely not an excellent theory to manually configure each pair SL and TP although you can. The EA gets its set ups upgraded from the stifles after authorized gain access to configuring each pair preset values; each setting has its own stop loss and take profit so I cannot list all in here. Just an example, the stop loss ranges from 180 pips on EURUSD and GBPUSD to as high as 300 on, and so on. The stop loss is rarely reached, though – by deeper analyzing the backrests. It’s additionally an ability to choose gains early prior to the choose take profit target is hit by its positions. I am quite happy with the way it open extra positions when the market move in not favorable direction. Some secret ways in here that I cannot understand that lower the drawdown (and risk) when the robot scales in to positions. The strategy itself is pretty complicated that you have to be careful to read their instructions or using set files on official site only; a few signs which are provided with Metatrader are affected in an ingenious approach, so the entry signals are identified. It’s retry iterations for opening/closing orders, signifying a particular amount of expertise with automatic trading in live. Instead the DLL programming is sometimes a hurdle for EAs working on multiple pairs with the identical DLL, in this situation it appears to be entirely threaded safe.
Hidden Scalping Code is the best forex trading solution to avoid trading during any uncertain market periods. Hidden Scalping Code does it’s works This will help you sell better on the foreign exchange market and make more money. This program will analyze all the graphics for you every second! So, you get the best trend of the pair and time frame, at any time you want. Hidden Scalping Code Free Download This Hidden Scalping Code software is less expensive compared to other forex software. You need a computer with an internet connection. All setup information is provided in the Hidden Scalping Code user’s guide. Hidden Scalping Code Software Reviews
Hidden Scalping Code: This is a special trend indicator that is available only on the official website. Absolutely no repaint! It is designed to work on M15, M30, H1, H4 and D1 timeframes. Works for all currency pairs, but best on: EUUSD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, EUJPY, GBP/JPY, USD/CHF and USD/CAD. "Hidden Scalping Code" can also inform you of every new signal via review, pop up sound or push alerts. It's very convinient. The special informer that is implemented in this indicator shows trend strength, time left until next candle, last generated signal etc. This will make your trading even more simple and profitable! "Hidden Scalping Code" is designed for MT4 platforms. It is NOT an EA or Robot, but a powerful buy/sell signal arrows scalping indicator software. You get smart signals, use them and make profit. I highly recommend you try "Hidden Scalping Code" right now I have just downloaded the Brand New "Hidden Scalping Code" It's absolutely fantastic! The signals are VERY fast! I already opened two trades and both are currently over 150 pips profit. DOWNLOAD HIDDEN SCALPING CODE NOW
The Covert Society Review-Is The Covert Society Scam-Download Free
You Are Now Reading The Covert Society Review! This My Experienced Based 100% Unbiased The Covert Society Review! Read Carefully. What The Covert Society Software All About? Does George Cox' s The Covert Society Review Really Work? Find Out The Truth About The Covert Society Before You Download it! Product Name: The Covert Society Creator: George Cox' s Niche: Binary/Forex Price: Basically Free ( Bonus Package Included) Website: The Covert Society Official Website Did ever wonder why some are able to make thousands of dollars trading, but could barely count? Maybe they can count, but don’t really have the mathematical knowledge and brain power to calculate all the necessary signals required to do effective trading. Download The Covert Society From Official Website And Claim Your $300 Bonus Deposit Well, it’s because they use computer software to do that for them. After all we live in technology age where phones have more computing power than most powerful computer 10 years ago. No wonder counting in your head is slowly becoming obsolete. The problem is that most of these software are only available to the few elite, or have their price inflated so only big companies can afford them. What are binary options? - The Covert Society Binary options are one of the most lucrative methods for making money quickly on the internet. All that is required is a computer and an internet connection. With binary options, you can bet on rising or falling exchange rates and prices of indices, commodities and shares over a foreseeable time period. This means that binary options can only produce one of two scenarios. If the Defined event takes place, the buyer receives a fixed amount. Otherwise, the option expires and therefore worthless. The benefit in this form of trade is the high profits coupled with manageable losses. Even small market movements can produce interesting capital yields. Further, profits can be Realized in a very short time frame, given that the expiry period of the option is usually set at only a few days or even hours. Download The Covert Society From Official Website And Claim Your $300 Bonus Deposit To quickly increase your money, only a knowledge of the direction of the movement of the investment before its expiry is needed. And that is exactly, where this new “super weapon” comes in… How does The Covert Society Software work? The Covert Society System is the English version of Option Rally and is a semi-automated trade program for binary options. It analyses 11 indicators and initiates a trade that only needs to be confirmed by the user. This rules out errors and frustrating days in front of the computer. A few clicks is all it takes. 1) Download You can download the software free and without obligation from the official website. You can test The Covert Society System with $500 Demo money WITHOUT depositing money and convince yourself of power of The Covert Society System! Once the trial period expires, you can choose to purchase the full version. The price is set by trade volume and starts at $297 to $2397 per month. 2) Installation and activation The installation process is self-explanatory and only takes a few minutes. The trade account with Vault Options Finance is equally created in just a few steps. For a proper trial, I would recommend loading the Options Maker Finance trading account with at least 200, – $ or more. Depositing funds is secure and smooth, whether you use your credit card, a bank transfer or any other popular payment method. 3) Use Once you have deposited funds, your software is ready to use immediately. As soon as you receive a signal, simply confirm the trade. 1 click – that’s it! I was really impressed with the ease of use. All procedures are explained in detail and foolproof. I set up my first trade at dusk and realized a substantial profit on my first day. Download The Covert Society From Official Website And Claim Your $300 Bonus Deposit What We Like Best With The Platform:
Free download of the software
Compatible with Windows and MAC computer
Free demo account with demo money
Automatic search for binary signals
Once we access the member’s area, here are what is included:
Free binary option training
Step by step guide to the system
The method of trading being simple is easy to understand
The beginners can learn through easily.
Rewards and risks go hand in hand.
Percentage profit will not be affected by any amendment in the market trends.
As with any signal provider, 100% success cannot be guaranteed, so it pays to do a bit of research before placing a trade.
Bottom Line: The Covert Society System is definitely not a scam. It’s a free training. You are the one to decide how much money you should put into Forex. This is plain and simple. I’ve followed this training from past 1 week and have made over $2540 in profits. I only invested $500 when I started. I just can’t believe it is possible. I never thought about putting my money into Forex because of the hesitation and risk of loosing money but now I’m relieved to see the profits I’m making. Download The Covert Society From Official Website And Claim Your $300 Bonus Deposit
ECN. Used most by professional traders. Difficult platform for beginners
Minimum deposit $10000 (or $3,000 if under 25yo) * Well diversified -Oanda
Market maker. Second largest retail FX brokerage in the US. Easy platform for beginners.
No minimum deposit
Not well diversified, but well capitalized -Gain Capital (whitelabel forex.com) *Market Maker *Fair spreads *Minimum deposit $250 *Well diversified -FXCM Inc
ECN. Largest retail FX brokerage in the US
Minimum deposit $2000
Not well diversified. CAUTION: FXCM nearly went bankrupt in Jan-2015 due to a lack of diversification and low capitalisation. As a result FXCM LLC was bailed out with a large loan which may prove difficult to pay back. Be warned that their business may not be sustainable in the long term. -MBTrading
ECN. Mid-sized retail FX brokerage
Minimum deposit $400
International Only- -LMAX (whitelabel DarwinEx) *DMA broker based in the UK. Note that as a DMA broker LMAX eliminates the ability for LPs to last-look transactions. This may result in reduced liquidity during volatile times as liquidity providers would be likely not to risk posting liquidity to LMAX's pool. *Tight spreads *Minimum deposit $10,000 *Fairly well diversified -Dukascopy *ECN based in Switzerland, but available elsewhere depending on local regulations. *Tight spreads *Minimum deposit $100 *Fairly well diversified -IC Markets *ECN based in Australia *Fair spreads on standard account, tight spreads on professional accounts. *Minimum deposit $200 *Fairly well diversified -Pepperstone *ECN broker based in Australia. *Fair spreads on standard account, tight spreads on professional accounts. *Minimum deposit $200 *Not well diversified Software / Apps: Desktop/mobile
Apps are typically broker dependent. Some brokers have their own proprietary software, while others lease common software like Metatrader or NinjaTrader. Some software has a large development community for indicators and EAs.
Terminology/Acronyms: www.forexlive.com/ForexJargon - Common terms and acronyms FAQ: I need to exchange money, how do I do it? This isn’t what this sub is for. Your best bet is using your bank or an online exchange service. Be prepared to pay a hefty fee. I have money in one currency and need to exchange it into another sometime in the future, should I wait? Don’t ask us this. We speculate intraday in FX and shouldn’t be relied on to tell you what’s best for you. Exchange the money when you need it. I have an FX account, should I start trading demo or live? This is highly debatable. You should definitely demo trade until you have mastered how to use the trading platform on desktop and mobile. After that it’s up to you. Many think that the psychology of trading live vs demo trading is massively different. So it may pay to learn to trade live. Just be warned that most FX traders lose almost their entire first account so start with a low affordable balance. What’s money management? Money management is a form of risk management and is arguably the most important aspect of your trading when it comes to long term survival. You should always enter trades with a stop loss - the distance of the stop allows you to calculate how large of a percent of your account balance will be lost if your trade stops out. You can run a monte carlo simulation to figure out the risk of having a number of trades go against you in a row to drain your account. The general rule is that you should only risk losing 1-4% of your account per trade entered. More on this here: www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/06/fxmoneymgmt.asp www.swing-trade-stocks.com/money-management.html What about automated trading? Retail FX traders have been known to program “Expert Advisors” (EAs) to automate trading. It’s generally advisable to stay away from that until you’re very experienced. Never buy an EA from a developer because the vast majority of them are scams. What indicators are best? That’s up to you to test and find out. Many in this forum dislike oscillating indicators since they fail to capture the essence of what moves price. With experience you will discover what works best for you. In my experience indicators that are most popular with professional traders are those that provide trading “levels” such as pivot points, fibonacci, moving averages, trendlines, etc. What timeframe should I trade? Price action can vary in different timeframes. In longer term timeframes the price action and fundamentals are much more clear. Unfortunately it would take a very long time to figure out whether or not what you’re doing is successful on longer timeframes. In shorter timeframes you can often tell very quickly if what you’re doing is profitable. Unfortunately there’s a lot more “noise” on these levels which can prove deceptive for those trying to learn. Therefore the best bet is to use a multi-timeframe analysis, working from top-down to come up with trades. Should I trade using fundamental analysis (FA) of technical analysis (TA)? This is a long standing argument in these forums and elsewhere. I’ll settle it here - you should have an understanding of both. Yes there are traders who blindly ignore one of the other but a truly well rounded trader should understand and implement both into the analysis. The market is driven in the longer term through FA. But TA is necessary to give traders a place to enter and exit trades from a psychological risk/reward standpoint. I’ve heard trading Binary Options is an easy way to make money? The general advice is to stay away from binaries. The structure of binary options is so that when you lose the broker wins. This incentive has created a very scammy industry where there are few legitimate binary options brokers. In addition in order to be profitable in binaries you have to win 55-65% of the time. That’s a much higher premium over spot FX. Am I actually exchanging currencies? Yes and no. Your broker handles spot FX is currency pairs. Although they make an exchange at the settlement date they treat your position in your account as a virtual currency pair. Think of it like a contract where you can only buy or sell it as a pair. In this sense you are always long one currency while short another. You are merely speculating that one currency will appreciate or depreciate vs another. Why didn't my order fill? Even if price appears to cross over a line on your chart it does not guarantee a fill. Different charting platforms chart different prices - some chart the bid price, some the ask price and some the midpoint price. To fill a limit order price needs to cross your limit's price plus the spread at the time that it is crossing. If it does not equal or exceed the spread then it will not fill. Be wary that in general spreads are not fixed. So what may fill at one time may not at another.
** JMB Profit Machine Review 2015 - Is JMB Profit Machine Software SCAM Or WORTH?Does JMB Profit Machine System Work - The Real Truth About JMB Profit Machine By Thomas Free Download - JMB Profit Machine Review 2015 - JMB Profit Machine?? Learn the Secret about JMB Profit Machine in this JMB Profit Machine review! So Exactly what is JMB Profit Machine Software all about? Does JMB Profit Machine Actually Work? Is JMB Profit Machine Software application scam or does it really work? JMB Profit Machine Review Is JMB Profit Machine Software A Scam Or Legit? Does JMB Profit Machine System Works? My JMB Profit Machine Review Explore With You The Truth About JMB Profit Machine System Product Name: JMB Profit Machine JMB Profit Machine Website: JMB Profit Machine CEO: Jonathan Mark and Matt JMB Profit Machine Cost: FREE Download JMB Profit Machine System APP %100 Risk-Free + $1000 Bonus Free NOW… JMB Profit Machine Review If you are trading in the Binary Options market, you will undoubtedly be familiar with as Sttml risky venture. Most traders who trade in currencies lose their money in the end. Unfortunately, some of these are losing at the end of a significant portion of their net worth it. Many traders, especially freshmen whom they are attracted to JMB Profit Machine brokers because they see they offer leverage up to 200: 1 and in some cases providing greater levels. There is a common belief among new traders that they can use this leverage to make huge fortunes. This belief is often not conducive only to cry at the end. 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Many new traders should begin to borrow very small funds, though it will ultimately depend of course on the JMB Profit Machine strategy that you use. If you have a trading account worth $10,000, most brokers will allow you to open trading centers valued at $ 500,000 at least. If you bought the US dollar pair leverage may be 1:50 in the sense that the trading center is the largest of 50 times the size of JMB Profit Machine Trading account. It will not take a lot of price movements in the wrong direction before they cause enormous losses to calculate your trade it. Many new traders begin with small to calculate their trades. The same principle can be applied to the account value of $100, where he could open a trade value of $5,000 centers. The youngest permissible trading positions by JMB Profit Machine brokers is $10,000, though they are allowed to open an account valued at $100. Brokers do not mind it because they know that 99% of customers who do so will lose their accounts quickly. Point I am trying to reach is that one must be realistic. Deal with trading as if it were your own business. Targeted to achieve realistic returns. Think about the stock market or mutual funds this is achieved in the average annual return up to 10%. If this has been able to achieve 77% in the year through Binary trading with JMB Profit Machine Software, this of course will be much higher! Do not expect to make $1,000 a month from the account value of $ 100. It is almost certain that he will not happen. Is JMB Profit Machine A Scam JMB Profit Machine Software is not A scam It’s legit and Safe Binary System. JMB Profit Machine is Automated Binary Options Trading Signals Software . 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Forex trade Calculator v.1.45 Forex Trade Calculator is used to calculate a current profit/loss of open positions and profit/loss after "partial closing" or "reversing" positions, using real-time quotes. Also the economical calendar alert give warnings about inportant news. Forex Profit System ExplorSoft v.3.81 The features of Instant Forex Profit System: Breathtakingly simple. Forex Trade Calculator is used to calculate a current profit/loss of open positions and to calculate profit/loss after partial closing or reversing positions. Minimized panel places Always on top ... Forex Calculator helps calculating different styles of trading, including cost-averaging, stop-and-reverse, multi-leg positions based on feathering-in, and straddle or pending orders. The Calculator is a free-standing PC application that lets you quickly and easily see its critical information for each currency pair you trade. Besides real time rates, your profit and loss is calculated on real time basis by the forex trading software and is displayed live online. Even though this is an important advantage in forex trading account but I strongly recommend that you must be aware about the methodology to calculate your profit and loss from forex trading. Basically there are two straightforward rules for calculating ... FXTM’s Profit Calculator is a simple tool that will help you determine a trade’s outcome and decide if it is favorable. You can also set different bid and ask prices and compare the results. How it works: In 4 simple steps, the Profit Calculator will help you determine the potential profit/loss of a trade. Pick the currency pair you wish to ... Forex Trade Calculator is used to calculate a current profit/loss of open positions and profit/loss after "partial closing" or "reversing" positions, using real-time quotes. Also the economical calendar alert give warnings about inportant news. Our profit and loss calculator will help you find out how much you stand to lose or gain if your stop-loss and/or take-profit levels have been reached. Select your base currency, the currency pair you are trading on, your trade size in lots and account type. Set the opening price and your stop loss and take profit values.
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